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US Open 2026 (Women's Singles): Iga Swiatek (POL, seed No. 3) reaches the third round (by approximately 29 August 2026, confirmed by USTA or WTA)
Probability
88%
Following the predicted withdrawal of Aryna Rybakina (No. 2), Swiatek has effectively moved up to seed No. 3. She consistently reaches the second week at Grand Slams (historical W/L in Major first and second rounds >95%). Round 3 requires only two wins – a statistically reliable hurdle for a top-3 seed. Only serious injury or a genuine first-round giant-killer could prevent this. Comparable prediction market prices for top-3 seeds reaching the last 16 (one round further) imply approximately 85–90%.
Data basis for this prediction
- USTA US Open 2026 Seeds/Draw (Stand 25. Aug 2026)
- WTA-Rangliste August 2026 – Swiatek in Top 3 nach Rybakina-Rückzug
- Swiatek Grand-Slam-W/L-Record 2022–2026 (WTA Stats)
- Metaculus – Implied probability for seeded top-3 players reaching R3 at Slams (Aug 2026)
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Das US-Open-2026-Hauptfeld beginnt erst am 30. August 2026, daher ist es bis zum Stichtag 29. August unmöglich, Runde 3 zu erreichen. Zudem ist Swiatek Setzliste Nr. 8, nicht Nr. 3. Quelle: Wikipedia, Flashscore.