Federal Reserve holds key rate unchanged at 3.75–4.00% at the October 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting (confirmed by Fed press release or Bloomberg by October 28, 2026, 3:00 PM ET)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 3. October 2026
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Predicted for 28. October 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
Kalshi shows ~73–78% probability of an unchanged rate at the October FOMC meeting (Oct 27–28, 2026); Polymarket shows ~65% hold, ~35% hike (as of Oct 3, 2026). The surprisingly weak September 2026 US jobs report (NFP: only 29,000 new jobs vs. 90,000 consensus estimate; unemployment rising from 4.1% to 4.2%) shifted rate-hike expectations from October to December. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly fell to 5.18% before recovering to ~5.28%. DeFiRate and predictionmarketspicks.com see hold at 17–21% hike probability after the NFP shock. Current rate: 3.75–4.00%; any final hike would come in December — consistent with an existing Cassandra December-FOMC forecast.
Data basis for this prediction
- Kalshi KXFEDDECISION-26OCT: 73–78 % Hold-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Stand 3.10.2026)
- Polymarket Fed-Rates-Dashboard: 65 % Hold / 35 % Hike Oktober (Stand 3.10.2026)
- CNBC/FXStreet: NFP September 2026 nur 29.000 — Arbeitslosigkeit 4,2 % (2.10.2026)
- QZ: Treasury-Renditen sinken nach NFP-Schock; Hike-Erwartungen auf Dezember verschoben (2.10.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P Global flash composite PMI for the eurozone rose to 53.1 in September 2026 — a 41-month high (August: 52.0), marking the third consecutive month of expansion. The final reading will be published on October 6. The manufacturing PMI final was already at 52.9 (flash: 52.7 — revised upward, published October 1, 2026), indicating a generally robust final revision. Historically, S&P Global PMI final readings deviate less than ±0.3 points from the flash value; upward revisions slightly predominate. With a flash of 53.1 and a threshold of 53.0, the probability of occurrence is ~72% (30% risk of a downward revision of >0.1 points). No Polymarket/Kalshi market available for this PMI release.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
No Polymarket/Kalshi signal for PMI data available. The German services flash PMI for September 2026 was published on September 23, 2026 at 52.9 points — a 7-month high, clear beat vs. consensus of 50.0 (August final: 49.7, contraction). S&P Global final readings historically deviate ±0.3–0.5 points from flash. Probability of final staying above 52.0 (~0.9 point buffer) is ~88%. Consistent with the broader European PMI picture: France, Spain, and Italy are also expected in expansion.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
No direct prediction market signal for Nikkei year-end available. Calibration based on current data: Nikkei 225 closed at 68,309 points on October 2, 2026 (+50.4% YoY; all-time high 73,007 in June 2026). To reach 70,000 requires ~2.5% gain — a moderate task for Q4. Positive: Strong Japanese corporate earnings, TSE reform pressure on return on equity, global AI investment cycles support tech stocks. Headwind: Expected BoJ rate hike in December 2026 to 1.50% (existing open prediction) strengthens yen and weighs on export-oriented stocks. Recent pullback from 6-week highs (October 2026) indicates profit-taking. Overall estimate: 58%.