US Federal Reserve raises the benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points at the approximately December 15-16, 2026 FOMC meeting (confirmed via Federal Reserve press release or Bloomberg by December 17, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 27. September 2026
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Predicted for 16. December 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
CME FedWatch shows ~95% market probability for another rate hike by year-end 2026. The Fed last raised rates on September 15-16, 2026 unanimously (12-0) to 3.75-4.00%; CME implies ~69% for +25bps at the October 27-28 meeting. Supporting factors: Core PCE August 2026 expected >3.8% YoY, EUR/USD at 1.1382 (Sept 27, 2026) confirms monetary policy divergence from Europe. Small discount from CME figure (95% → 88%) to account for tail risks: possible recession signals or sudden inflation drop. CME FedWatch implies ~95% for a year-end hike.
Data basis for this prediction
- CME FedWatch: ~69 % Okt-Erhöhung, ~95 % Jahresend-Erhöhung (CentralBank.watch / CME, Stand 27.09.2026)
- Fed-Entscheid 15./16.09.2026: Leitzins 3,75–4,00 %, einstimmig 12:0 (Federal Reserve)
- EUR/USD Kassakurs: 1,1382 (TradingEconomics, 27.09.2026)
- Core PCE August 2026: Konsensschätzung >3,8 % YoY (Bloomberg, Stand 27.09.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Analyst consensus for BAC Q3 2026: ~$31.16 billion (Yahoo Finance, 9 analysts; range: $30.05B–$32.05B). BAC already posted $31.56B total revenue in Q2 2026 (NII +9% YoY, total revenue +13% YoY). The $31.0B threshold is ~0.5% below consensus; however, the risk of a softer yield curve or trading-revenue dip in August/September must be priced in. The Fed held rates at its September 2026 meeting (Kalshi: 70.5% hold probability). No Polymarket market found for BAC; own estimate slightly below consensus confidence: ~57%.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The Eurozone Services PMI flash estimate for September 2026 came in at exactly 53.0 — the strongest reading in nearly a year and well above the consensus forecast of 51.5. The Eurozone Composite flash hit 53.1 (highest since April 2023). Final revisions for S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI historically fall in the ±0.2-point range; in the current acceleration environment (strongest pace in years), slight upward revisions are statistically more common than downward ones. No dedicated prediction market available; calibrated on flash reading plus historical revision pattern.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Amazon reported net sales of $158.9 billion in Q3 2025 (+11% YoY). At a conservatively estimated 10–11% year-over-year growth rate — driven by AWS AI infrastructure demand, continued growth in the Advertising segment, and stable Prime growth — Q3 2026 falls in a target range of $175–180 billion. Bloomberg consensus estimates were most recently at ~$176B. The $175B threshold is slightly below consensus. Polymarket has no explicit Amazon Q3 revenue market. No open Cassandra event duplicates Amazon net sales. Risks: weakness in online retail from consumer softness (consumer confidence below 91 points, open Cassandra prediction).