US Federal Reserve Cuts the Fed Funds Rate by 25 bp to 3.25–3.50% at the October 29, 2026 FOMC Meeting (Confirmed by Fed Press Release or Bloomberg)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 23. August 2026
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Predicted for 29. October 2026
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Based on: Speculative
The Fed is forecast to hold at 3.50–3.75% in September (open prediction). No October FOMC prediction is yet open. CME FedWatch showed 68.4% hold probability for the next meeting as of August 20, 2026, implying ~32% cut probability. If core PCE July ≤2.3% (open prediction) and August NFP <110k (open prediction) materialize, the data case for an October cut strengthens substantially: disinflation plus a weaker labor market is the classic Fed trigger scenario. FedWatch implication and data drivers support ~40% probability.
Data basis for this prediction
- CME FedWatch Tool: 68,4 % Zinspause-Wahrscheinlichkeit nächstes Meeting (Stand 20. Aug. 2026)
- centralbank.watch / growbeansprout.com: FOMC Watch Tool – Fed Rate Probability (Aug 2026)
- Offene Cassandra.news-Vorhersage: Fed hält Leitzins 17. Sep. 2026 bei 3,50–3,75 %
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Fed hielt Federal-Funds-Rate unverändert bei 3,75–4,00 %; keine Zinssenkung auf 3,25–3,50 %. Quelle: federalreserve.gov Implementation Note 28.10.2026, CNBC
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold traded at approximately $4,130 per troy ounce on November 5, 2026 — a one-day gain of +1.68% (+$66) following the Democratic midterm sweep (Democrats won both the Senate and the House, per AP/NBC, November 5, 2026). Polymarket prices a 49% probability of gold exceeding $4,200 in November (as of November 5, 2026). The target is only 1.7% above today's closing level with 25 trading days remaining. Upside drivers: Iran de-escalation by new Democratic Congress, falling oil prices (WTI −1.13% to $87.13). Risk factors: profit-taking, rising real yields.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Cisco has beaten Non-GAAP EPS consensus in 7 of its last 8 quarters. For Q1 FY2027 (August–October 2026) the company itself guided $1.32–$1.34 per share — the market consensus of $1.32 sits at the bottom of this self-guided range, which historically signals a beat for Cisco (Q4 FY2026: $1.22 vs. consensus $1.17). AI-networking growth, Splunk integration synergies, and record Q4 FY2026 revenue ($17.25B) confirm the structural growth momentum. Q1 FY2027 revenue consensus: $18.11B (within guidance range $18.0–18.2B).