📈 Economy · Next Year

US Federal Reserve Cuts the Fed Funds Rate by 25 bp to 3.25–3.50% at the October 29, 2026 FOMC Meeting (Confirmed by Fed Press Release or Bloomberg)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 23. August 2026 · Predicted for 29. October 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

40%

The Fed is forecast to hold at 3.50–3.75% in September (open prediction). No October FOMC prediction is yet open. CME FedWatch showed 68.4% hold probability for the next meeting as of August 20, 2026, implying ~32% cut probability. If core PCE July ≤2.3% (open prediction) and August NFP <110k (open prediction) materialize, the data case for an October cut strengthens substantially: disinflation plus a weaker labor market is the classic Fed trigger scenario. FedWatch implication and data drivers support ~40% probability.

Data basis for this prediction

CME FedWatch Tool: 68,4 % Zinspause-Wahrscheinlichkeit nächstes Meeting (Stand 20. Aug. 2026)
centralbank.watch / growbeansprout.com: FOMC Watch Tool – Fed Rate Probability (Aug 2026)
Offene Cassandra.news-Vorhersage: Fed hält Leitzins 17. Sep. 2026 bei 3,50–3,75 %

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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