📈 Economy · Next Month

US Federal Reserve raises federal funds rate by 25bp to 3.75–4.00% at September 16–17, 2026 FOMC meeting (confirmed by Fed press release)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 24. July 2026 · Predicted for 17. September 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

73%

fxleaders.com reported July 24, 2026: 'September Hike Odds Jump to 80%' — triggered by Brent ~$100, rising US Treasury yields, elevated inflation expectations. Polymarket already shows 25% chance of July hike; if July holds (74–81%), September pressure rises sharply. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is seen as inflation-sensitive hawk; Jackson Hole (Aug 27–29) will likely serve as signaling platform (see open prediction). Market-implied September hike probability: ~75–80% — applied here with slight discount: 73%.

Data basis for this prediction

fxleaders.com: 'September Hike Odds Jump to 80%', 24. Juli 2026
Polymarket: 25 % Juli-Anhebung / 74 % keine Änderung, Juli 2026
Bloomberg: Brent bei 100 USD erhöht Inflationserwartungen, 24. Juli 2026
Yahoo Finance: Märkte preisen höhere Zinsen auf Öl/CPI-Schock, 23.–24. Juli 2026

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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