US ISM Non-Manufacturing / Services PMI for July 2026 (released August 5, 2026, 10:00 am ET) prints at 53.0 or above (expansion territory, confirmed by ISM Report On Business)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 28. July 2026
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Predicted for 5. August 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
ISM Services PMI data for July 2026 will be released on August 5. In June 2026 the index stood at 54.0, in May 2026 at 54.5 — keeping the US services sector solidly in expansion territory for months. The 53.0 threshold is significantly below recent readings; a drop below 53 would require an acceleration of the decline of more than 2 index points vs June. Headwinds from softening private consumption and elevated rates (currently 3.50–3.75%) are to be factored in, but insufficient to push below 53. No Polymarket/Kalshi price available; trend extrapolation based on 6-month baseline.
Data basis for this prediction
- ISM / PR Newswire: 'Services PMI at 54.0% – June 2026 ISM Services PMI Report' (06.07.2026)
- ISM / PR Newswire: 'Services PMI at 54.5% – May 2026 ISM Services PMI Report' (07.06.2026)
- ISM World: Release calendar – July 2026 Services PMI release date: August 5, 2026
- FXStreet: ISM Services PMI July 2026 forecast calendar entry (Stand 28.07.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Der ISM Services PMI für Juli 2026 wurde am 5. August 2026 mit 54,1 Punkten veröffentlicht – deutlich oberhalb der Schwelle von 53,0. Das entspricht dem 25. aufeinanderfolgenden Expansionsmonat und liegt sogar leicht über dem Juni-Wert von 54,0. Die Vorhersage traf ein. Quelle: ISM® Services PMI® Report On Business, PR Newswire (https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-54-1-july-2026-ism-services-pmi-report-302843134.html)
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.