US ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services) PMI August 2026 (Release 4 September 2026): Result above 51.5 points (confirmed by ISM or Bloomberg)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 29. August 2026
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Predicted for 4. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 came in at 53.2 points (released 2 September 2026) – slightly below expectations but clearly in expansion territory. The ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services) PMI is historically more resilient than the Manufacturing index and held consistently above 52 in H1 2026. With US Core PCE (July 2026) at 3.3% and stable domestic demand momentum, the services sector should continue expanding despite tariff pressures and elevated rates. A reading above 51.5 is consistent with the prevailing trend corridor; Polymarket has no specific market for this threshold.
Data basis for this prediction
- ISM Manufacturing PMI August 2026: 53,2 Punkte (PNC Economics Research, 02.09.2026)
- US Core PCE Juli 2026: 3,3% j/j; Headline PCE 3,7% j/j (BEA, 26.08.2026)
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Veröffentlichungskalender: ca. 4. September 2026 (ISM.ws)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] ISM Services PMI August 2026 = 54,2 Punkte, bereits am 3. September 2026 veröffentlicht (Prediction hatte irrtümlich den 4. September als Veröffentlichungsdatum). 54,2 liegt weit über der Schwelle von 51,5. Quelle: Investing.com Economic Calendar.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 closed at 7,636.36 on 9 September 2026. Falling below 7,450 by month-end would require a 2.4% decline. Headwinds: Fed rate hike of 25bp on 16 September (CentralBank.Watch: 59% probability), August PPI above expectations (+5.4% YoY), Iran-Gulf risk premium. Stabilizing factors: hike largely priced in (Polymarket: 93% for zero 2026 cuts), Q2 earnings solid, no recession signals. Historically, a single 25bp September hike rarely causes a monthly decline above 2.5%.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.