US ISM Manufacturing PMI September 2026 remains in contraction below 50.0 (release October 1, 2026, confirmed by ISM or Bloomberg by October 1, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 30. September 2026
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Predicted for 1. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is unlikely to clear the 50-point expansion threshold in September 2026. Supporting arguments: (1) Key global manufacturing indices are all in contraction — Eurozone final below 50, Germany below 45, France below 46.5, Italy below 50. (2) WTI crude at ~$89/barrel (+43% YoY) significantly squeezes US manufacturers via elevated input costs. (3) The MNI Chicago Business Barometer — a reliable leading indicator for ISM (correlation ~0.8) — is also expected in contraction per open platform prediction. (4) ISM Manufacturing has been below 50 in eight of the past twelve months. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found; own calibration based on global PMI data.
Data basis for this prediction
- Trading Economics: WTI Rohöl ~89,40 USD/Barrel, +42,85 % YoY (30.09.2026)
- S&P Global Eurozone/Deutschland/Frankreich/Italien Manufacturing PMIs September 2026: alle in Kontraktionszone (offene Plattform-Vorhersagen)
- FedRateCalc.com: US ISM Manufacturing PMI September, Veröffentlichung 01.10.2026 (Economic Calendar)
- Plattform-eigene Vorhersage: MNI Chicago Business Barometer September 2026 unter 50 Punkten
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
US CPI August 2026 came in at 3.4% YoY (BLS, September 11, 2026), driven primarily by energy (+16.3% YoY, gasoline +27.4%). For September, the street consensus expects a rise to 3.7%, Cleveland Fed Nowcast: 3.57%, Kalshi-implied expectation: ~3.63%. With WTI crude at ~$89/barrel (+43% YoY) and Brent at ~$97 (+60% YoY), the energy contribution to CPI should remain clearly positive. The 3.5% threshold sits below the consensus expectation of 3.7% and well below the level consistent with continued Fed rate hikes (currently on track to 4.00–4.25%). No direct Polymarket market for the exact threshold; calibrated using Nowflation, Cleveland Fed, and Kalshi.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
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📈 Economy
✦ AI
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