US ISM Manufacturing PMI September 2026 closes above 55.0 points (release October 1, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 28. September 2026
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Predicted for 1. October 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 will be released October 1, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET. Continuum Economics forecasts 55.5 points (after 54.6 in August 2026 – the highest since May 2022 except for the July peak). The New Orders sub-index is projected at 57.0 (up from 53.7 in August). Robust industrial momentum is consistent with strong Q3 GDP advance data. With a consensus of 55.5, a close above 55.0 appears probable; downside risks stem from potential inventory corrections and weaker export orders due to the Hormuz crisis.
Data basis for this prediction
- Continuum Economics Preview (01.10.2026): ISM Manufacturing PMI Forecast 55,5 Punkte
- ISM Manufacturing PMI August 2026: 54,6 Punkte – höchster Stand seit Mai 2022 (Veröff. 02.09.2026)
- MQL5 Economic Calendar: ISM Manufacturing PMI, 01.10.2026, 10:00 ET
- ISM Annual Economic Outlook 2026 (Prnewswire, Jan. 2026): Wachstumskontinuität erwartet
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the September 2026 Manufacturing PMI on September 30, 2026. The NBS PMI – covering mainly large state-owned enterprises – differs structurally from the Caixin PMI (open prediction >50.0 for October 2, 2026). Following several Beijing fiscal support measures and improved export data in August 2026, a continuation above 50.0 is more likely than a contraction relapse. Headwinds remain from sustained US tariffs and weak domestic demand. Aggregate consensus estimates imply approximately 60% probability of expansion.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
EUR/USD trades at 1.1382 on September 27, 2026, already well above the platform's existing 1.1300 target for September 30 (likely to be missed). The platform's open prediction 'September NFP below 140k' is in place for the same day — weak US jobs data typically depresses the USD Index and pushes EUR/USD higher. The ECB holds its deposit rate at 2.50% (open prediction Oct 29); Fed market pricing still cautious near-term despite Oct 28 hike speculation. A +0.18 cent move (~+0.16%) to above 1.14 is plausible under a soft payrolls print. No Polymarket market found for this level. Pure event forecast — no buy/sell recommendation. Own estimate: 55%.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, Core PCE (excluding food and energy), stood at +3.3% YoY and +0.2% MoM in July 2026 (BEA, Aug 26, 2026). Morningstar forecasts mild cooling to around 3.1–3.2% for August 2026, as persistent tariff pass-through on imported goods continues to support services inflation ('some cooling, tariff impacts persist'). A drop below 3.1% in a single month would require a 0.2pp swing and would be a historical outlier. The BEA release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. No specific Polymarket or Kalshi markets for this data point were found; based on the Cleveland Fed Nowcast and consensus forecasts, probability is estimated at 82%.