US Federal Reserve raises rates by 25 bps to 4.00%–4.25% at the October 28, 2026 FOMC meeting
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 23. September 2026
·
Predicted for 28. October 2026
·
Based on: Historical Cycle
The Fed will raise rates by 25 bps to 4.00%-4.25% at the October 28, 2026 FOMC meeting. CME FedWatch shows a 54% market probability as of September 22, 2026; Polymarket prices 'Fed hike in October 2026' at ~56%. The Fed hiked to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, 2026 — its first hike since 2023 — in a unanimous vote. The September dot plot: 16 of 19 FOMC members expect at least one more hike in 2026. Futures price ~4.2% by December 2026 and ~4.7% by September 2027. Counterargument: the Fed often pauses after individual hikes — two consecutive hikes are unusual since 2023.
Data basis for this prediction
- CME FedWatch Tool: 54% Wahrscheinlichkeit +25bp-Hike am 28. Oktober 2026 (Stand 22. September 2026)
- CNBC: 'Fed rate decision September 2026: Rates rise to 3.75%-4%' (16. September 2026)
- BondSavvy: 'September 2026 Fed Dot Plot Sees Low 4% Fed Funds in 2027'
- Polymarket: 'Fed Decision in October 2026' ~56% (Stand September 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
Die Fed hielt den Leitzins am 28. Oktober 2026 unverändert bei 3,75%–4,00% (10:2-Abstimmung). Eine Anhebung auf 4,00%–4,25% fand nicht statt. Zwei Stimmberechtigte (Gov. Lisa Cook, Cleveland Fed-Präsidentin Beth Hammack) votierten zwar für +25 Bp, wurden aber überstimmt. Begründung des FOMC: man wolle zunächst weitere Wirtschaftsdaten abwarten; zudem spielte die Nähe zu den Midterm-Wahlen eine Rolle. Damit trat genau das im Vorhersage-Text selbst genannte Gegenargument ein – die Fed pausierte nach einer Einzelanhebung. Quellen: federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm; CNBC 28.10.2026 ('Fed holds rates steady'); CNN 28.10.2026; caproasia.com 29.10.2026.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Target has beaten the EPS consensus in 30 of its last 43 estimates (69.8%). In the most recent Q2 FY2027, TGT posted $2.46 per share vs. a $2.35 consensus — a +76% earnings surprise. Q3 consensus is $2.06–$2.08 on $26.71B revenue (+16.85% YoY). No Polymarket market directly available; the ~70% historical beat rate is the anchor. Tailwind: stronger back-to-school and early holiday demand, margin gain from private-label mix. Risk: consumer spending under pressure from persistently high rates (Fed target 3.75–4.00%); discretionary category weakness could overshadow grocery strength.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
EUR/USD at ~1.1256 on November 7, 2026 (12-month change: −3.41%; monthly: −0.21%). Reaching <1.09 requires a −3.2% move — well above the recent monthly pace. Dollar-supportive: Fed December hike 67% (Kalshi) / 69% (OIS) / 74% (JPMorgan); WTI +49.9% YTD; October CPI consensus 3.7% YoY (BLS, November 10). Counterweight: ECB also expected to hike to 2.75% (79% market-implied, December 2026), supporting EUR. No Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level. Entry scenario: renewed Strait of Hormuz escalation triggers dollar-flight. Probability: 20%.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
WTI at ~$89.86–90.52 on November 7, 2026 (+49.9% YTD from $60.40). Trump confirmed new US strikes on Qeshm Island on November 7; the IRGC deployed mines against tankers and seized two vessels. The Strait of Hormuz (~20% of global oil trade) faces direct disruption risk. OPEC+ held November production steady. No specific prediction market found for the $95 threshold. Reaching $95 requires a +5.5% move — achievable under renewed Strait escalation, but not the base case. Probability: 26%.