US Federal Reserve raises rates by 25 bps to 4.00%–4.25% at the October 28, 2026 FOMC meeting
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 23. September 2026
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Predicted for 28. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The Fed will raise rates by 25 bps to 4.00%-4.25% at the October 28, 2026 FOMC meeting. CME FedWatch shows a 54% market probability as of September 22, 2026; Polymarket prices 'Fed hike in October 2026' at ~56%. The Fed hiked to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, 2026 — its first hike since 2023 — in a unanimous vote. The September dot plot: 16 of 19 FOMC members expect at least one more hike in 2026. Futures price ~4.2% by December 2026 and ~4.7% by September 2027. Counterargument: the Fed often pauses after individual hikes — two consecutive hikes are unusual since 2023.
Data basis for this prediction
- CME FedWatch Tool: 54% Wahrscheinlichkeit +25bp-Hike am 28. Oktober 2026 (Stand 22. September 2026)
- CNBC: 'Fed rate decision September 2026: Rates rise to 3.75%-4%' (16. September 2026)
- BondSavvy: 'September 2026 Fed Dot Plot Sees Low 4% Fed Funds in 2027'
- Polymarket: 'Fed Decision in October 2026' ~56% (Stand September 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
EUR/USD will close above 1.1550 on September 30, 2026. An existing open platform prediction already places EUR/USD above 1.1500 on September 25 — implying the current rate is near or above 1.15. The ECB holds at 2.50%; the Fed hiked to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, 2026. Rate differential slightly supports the USD, but EUR has held firm against the hike: Eurozone Composite PMI September 2026 at 51.2 (S&P Global/HCOB, September 23, 2026), growth remains positive. From 1.1500 (September 25) to 1.1550 (September 30) is +0.4% over five trading days — approximately 58% probability under normal FX volatility.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The SNB will hold its policy rate at 0.00%. A Reuters poll (September 17–22, 2026) shows 40 of 41 economists expect a hold. The SNB also held at 0.00% at its June 2026 meeting. Nomura notes core inflation remains low despite modest energy-driven rises. No direct market price available; Reuters consensus implies ~97% hold probability. SNB Chair Schlegel expected to deliver a neutral message.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The ECB will cut its deposit rate by 25 bps from 2.50% to 2.25% at its December 11, 2026 Governing Council meeting. The open platform prediction holds the ECB at 2.50% for October 2026 — December is the next possible step. The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI for September 2026 came in at 51.2 (barely expansionary, below consensus) and France at 48.4 (contractionary). Eurozone inflation is expected near the 2% target; the ECB neutral rate is estimated at 2.0–2.5%, leaving further downside room from 2.50%. OIS forwards price an end-2026 cut at approximately 40–50%. Counterargument: energy-driven inflation and EUR/USD strength could justify a pause.