US Federal Reserve raises the Federal Funds Rate Target Range by 25 bp to 3.75–4.00% at the 16/17 September 2026 FOMC meeting (confirmed by FOMC press release)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 22. July 2026
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Predicted for 17. September 2026
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Based on: Speculative
The Fed has held at 3.50–3.75% for at least four consecutive meetings (fedratecalc.com, July 2026). Under hawkish Fed Chair Kevin Warsh the core PCE projection was raised to 3.6% (from 2.7%). Bank of America forecasts three hikes in 2026: September, October, and December (Bloomberg/Intellectia.ai, July 2026). Market-implied probability of a hike at the July 2026 meeting is 25–30% (fedratecalc.com); the September probability is higher, as the 29 July FOMC statement is expected to signal autumn intentions. S&P 500 at 7,505 (+18.95% YTD) and a robust labour market give the committee room to act. No Polymarket market for the Sep-26 hike; own calibration 42%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Fed Funds Rate: 3,50–3,75 %, vier aufeinanderfolgende Holds (Fedratecalc.com, 22.07.2026)
- Bank of America: Projektion Fed-Hikes Sep/Okt/Dez 2026 (Bloomberg / Intellectia.ai, Juli 2026)
- Marktimplizite Jul-26-Hike-Wahrscheinlichkeit: 25–30 % (Fedratecalc.com, 22.07.2026)
- S&P 500 Stand 21. Juli 2026: 7.505 Punkte, +18,95 % YTD (CNBC / Trading Economics)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Identische Vorhersage wie id 1514: FOMC hob auf 3,75–4,00 % an. Bestätigt durch FOMC-Pressemitteilung laut CNBC/Yahoo Finance vom 16.09.2026.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.