US Federal Reserve raises the Federal Funds Rate Target Range by 25 bp to 3.75–4.00% at the 16/17 September 2026 FOMC meeting (confirmed by FOMC press release)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 22. July 2026
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Predicted for 17. September 2026
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Based on: Speculative
The Fed has held at 3.50–3.75% for at least four consecutive meetings (fedratecalc.com, July 2026). Under hawkish Fed Chair Kevin Warsh the core PCE projection was raised to 3.6% (from 2.7%). Bank of America forecasts three hikes in 2026: September, October, and December (Bloomberg/Intellectia.ai, July 2026). Market-implied probability of a hike at the July 2026 meeting is 25–30% (fedratecalc.com); the September probability is higher, as the 29 July FOMC statement is expected to signal autumn intentions. S&P 500 at 7,505 (+18.95% YTD) and a robust labour market give the committee room to act. No Polymarket market for the Sep-26 hike; own calibration 42%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Fed Funds Rate: 3,50–3,75 %, vier aufeinanderfolgende Holds (Fedratecalc.com, 22.07.2026)
- Bank of America: Projektion Fed-Hikes Sep/Okt/Dez 2026 (Bloomberg / Intellectia.ai, Juli 2026)
- Marktimplizite Jul-26-Hike-Wahrscheinlichkeit: 25–30 % (Fedratecalc.com, 22.07.2026)
- S&P 500 Stand 21. Juli 2026: 7.505 Punkte, +18,95 % YTD (CNBC / Trading Economics)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
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📈 Economy
✦ AI
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📈 Economy
✦ AI
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