US Federal Reserve (FOMC meeting 16–17 September 2026): Fed holds rates steady — no hike
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 2. September 2026
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Predicted for 17. September 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
Kalshi and Polymarket (as of 26 August 2026) price a September FOMC rate hike at ~34%, implying a 66% hold probability. The July 2026 NFP showed -23,000 jobs (net payroll losses), substantially limiting the case for further tightening. While Brent oil is +32% YoY (as of 1 September 2026), driving inflation concerns, the labor market weakness favors a pause. Probability anchored on Kalshi market data at ~66% for no hike.
Data basis for this prediction
- Kalshi/Polymarket – Fed September FOMC Hike Probability: ~34% (Stand 26. August 2026)
- BLS – US Nonfarm Payrolls Juli 2026: –23.000 Stellen (veröffentlicht 5. August 2026)
- Convex Trade / Trading Economics – Brent Crude: $91,28–$92,07 (+32% YoY, 1. September 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.