📈 Economy
· Next Year
US Federal Reserve (FOMC) raises the federal funds rate at least once to the target range of 3.75–4.00% or higher by December 31, 2026 (confirmed by Fed press release or Bloomberg)
Probability
61%
Polymarket gives a 68% probability of at least one US rate hike in 2026. The current target range is 3.50–3.75%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh (in office since May 2026) is a well-known hawk and signalled hawkish intent at the Jackson Hole symposium on August 28. Headline PCE July 2026 came in at 3.7% YoY — far above the 2% target. The September FOMC meeting (Sep 16–17) is separately predicted as a hold; a hike is more probable at the November or December meeting. Calibrated at 61% after adjusting for timing uncertainty.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Fed-Zinserhöhung 2026 Wahrscheinlichkeit = 68% (Crypto Briefing / Polymarket, August 2026)
- Polymarket: 0 Zinssenkungen 2026 = 88,8%; Zinserhöhungsmarkt = 68% (Stand: August 2026)
- US Headline PCE Juli 2026: 3,7% YoY (BEA, veröffentlicht 26. August 2026)
- Fed-Zielband aktuell: 3,50–3,75%; Fed Chair Warsh Jackson Hole Signal (Bloomberg, 28. August 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.