US Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25% at the December 16, 2026 FOMC meeting (confirmed by Fed press release or Bloomberg by December 16, 2026, 2:00 PM ET)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 13. October 2026
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Predicted for 16. December 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Kalshi prices a 25 basis-point rate hike at the December FOMC meeting at ~74–75%, while Polymarket sits at ~73% (as of October 13, 2026). The broader picture: US inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target (September CPI consensus: 3.6–3.7% YoY per Nowflation/Kalshi), with rate cuts for the remainder of 2026 priced out at 97% probability (Polymarket). The October FOMC meeting (October 28) is priced as a hold with 84% probability — December remains the Fed's most likely action window. Weak September labor data collapsed October hike odds from ~64% to ~17%; December re-prices that tightening impulse. Polymarket/Kalshi: ~73–75%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Kalshi: December 2026 Fed Hike Odds ~74–75 % — kalshi.com, 13.10.2026
- Polymarket: October FOMC Hold 84 %, December Hike ~73 % — polymarkettrader.com, 12.10.2026
- Polymarket: Zero rate cuts rest of 2026 = 97 % — predictionnews.com, Oktober 2026
- CNBC: 'Inflation will remain sticky in 2026 according to prediction markets', 12.10.2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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✦ AI
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📈 Economy
✦ AI
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✦ AI
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