📈 Economy
· Next Week
US Federal Reserve keeps the policy rate (Federal Funds Rate Target Range) unchanged at 3.50–3.75% on July 29, 2026
Probability
82%
The current Fed policy rate stands at 3.50–3.75% (effective 3.62% as of July 2026). Polymarket assigns 82% probability to an unchanged outcome at the July FOMC meeting (decision: July 29, 2 pm ET). The US PCE deflator stood at 4.10% YoY in May 2026 — well above the 2% target, ruling out cuts. Geopolitical shocks (Iran-US conflict, Hormuz tensions) add uncertainty. No open market consensus contradicts a hold.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket Fed Juli 2026: 82 % Wahrscheinlichkeit unverändert (Polymarket.com, abgerufen 21. Juli 2026)
- Fed Leitzins effektiv 3,62 % per 9. Juli 2026 (CNBC/FRED)
- US PCE-Inflation Mai 2026: 4,10 % YoY (BEA / Trading Economics, Juli 2026)
- FOMC-Sitzung 28./29. Juli 2026, Entscheidung 29. Juli 14 Uhr ET (Fed.gov Kalender)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die Vorhersage ist exakt eingetreten. Die Fed hielt den Federal Funds Rate Target Range am 29. Juli 2026 unverändert bei 3,50–3,75 % – zum fünften Mal in Folge. Das FOMC stimmte 9:3 für einen Hold; die drei Gegenstimmen (Hammack/Cleveland, Kashkari/Minneapolis, Logan/Dallas) wollten eine Erhöhung um 25 Bp, keine Senkung. Quellen: federalreserve.gov (offizielles FOMC-Statement vom 29.07.2026), CNBC ('Divided Fed holds interest rates steady'), CNN Business, Fox Business.