📈 Economy · Next Week

US Federal Reserve keeps the policy rate (Federal Funds Rate Target Range) unchanged at 3.50–3.75% on July 29, 2026

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 21. July 2026 · Predicted for 29. July 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

82%

The current Fed policy rate stands at 3.50–3.75% (effective 3.62% as of July 2026). Polymarket assigns 82% probability to an unchanged outcome at the July FOMC meeting (decision: July 29, 2 pm ET). The US PCE deflator stood at 4.10% YoY in May 2026 — well above the 2% target, ruling out cuts. Geopolitical shocks (Iran-US conflict, Hormuz tensions) add uncertainty. No open market consensus contradicts a hold.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket Fed Juli 2026: 82 % Wahrscheinlichkeit unverändert (Polymarket.com, abgerufen 21. Juli 2026)
Fed Leitzins effektiv 3,62 % per 9. Juli 2026 (CNBC/FRED)
US PCE-Inflation Mai 2026: 4,10 % YoY (BEA / Trading Economics, Juli 2026)
FOMC-Sitzung 28./29. Juli 2026, Entscheidung 29. Juli 14 Uhr ET (Fed.gov Kalender)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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