📈 Economy · Next Month

US Federal Reserve keeps the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75% at the July 30, 2026 FOMC meeting

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 17. July 2026 · Predicted for 30. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

78%

The current Fed funds target rate is 3.50–3.75% (effectively 3.62% as of July 9, 2026). CME FedWatch as of July 13–17, 2026 shows a hold probability of ~78%; a 25bp rate hike has gained ~22% probability (up from 12.5% a month ago). A cut is priced at 0%. Rising US gasoline prices (Kalshi: 88–93% odds above $4/gallon by end of July) and persistent Hormuz-crisis inflation provide hawkish arguments. The open platform prediction of 'at least two further 25bp cuts after the July meeting' is consistent with a hold in July.

Data basis for this prediction

CME FedWatch: Hold-WS Juli 2026 ~78,1 %, Hike ~21,9 % (Stand 13.–17. Juli 2026)
CNBC: 'A July rate hike from the Fed? The odds are rising' (13. Juli 2026)
FRED/CNBC: Fed Funds Rate effektiv 3,62 % (Stand 9. Juli 2026)
Kalshi: US-Benzin über 4 USD/Gallone bis Juli-Ende – 88–93 % Wahrscheinlichkeit

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

Die Fed hat auf der FOMC-Sitzung am 28.–29. Juli 2026 den Leitzins tatsächlich unverändert bei 3,50–3,75 % belassen (9:3-Abstimmung). Die drei Gegenstimmen kamen von den Regionalpräsidenten Hammack (Cleveland), Kashkari (Minneapolis) und Logan (Dallas), die eine Anhebung um 25 Basispunkte bevorzugt hätten. Das ist genau der Halteentscheid, den die Vorhersage mit 78 % Wahrscheinlichkeit erwartet hatte. Kleiner Hinweis: Die Entscheidung fiel offiziell am 29. Juli, nicht am 30. Juli (die Sitzung lief 28.–29. Juli 2026). Quellen: CNBC 'Fed rate decision July 2026: Divided Fed holds interest rates steady' (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-rate-decision-july-2026.html); Federal Reserve Press Release (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a1.htm); CNN Business (https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/29/business/live-news/federal-reserve-interest-rate-07-29-26).

Related Predictions

📈 Economy ✦ AI

S&P 500 (SPX) closes above 7,500 on Friday, 13 November 2026 (confirmed via NYSE closing price or Bloomberg by 14 November 2026, 10:00 ET)

The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.

62%

Next Week · Predicted for 13. Nov 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

US Consumer Price Index (headline CPI) for October 2026 exceeds 3.7 percent year-on-year — BLS release November 10, 2026, 8:30 AM ET (confirmed by BLS or Bloomberg by November 10, 2026, 10:00 AM ET)

The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.

65%

Next Week · Predicted for 10. Nov 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

Gold (XAU/USD Spot) closes above $4,400 per ounce on 31 December 2026 (confirmed by Bloomberg or Kitco by 1 January 2027)

Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.

32%

Next Year · Predicted for 31. Dec 2026