US Producer Price Index (PPI) for June 2026 year-over-year above 5.0% (BLS release July 15, 2026, 08:30 ET)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 14. July 2026
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Predicted for 15. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
May 2026 PPI came in at +6.5% YoY – the highest since November 2022 – and +1.1% MoM (above the +0.7% consensus). The surge was ~80% energy-driven (+10.7% MoM goods; wholesale gasoline +23.4%). June saw energy moderate (CPI -0.1% MoM), likely trimming the YoY PPI by ~0.5–1.0 pp. However, tariff pass-through on imported goods and structurally elevated services costs support a remaining YoY reading well above 5%. Core PPI May was +5.1% YoY. No prediction market price available; own calibration: ~68%.
Data basis for this prediction
- BLS PPI Mai 2026: +6,5% YoY, +1,1% MoM (BLS Pressemitteilung 11. Juni 2026)
- Core PPI Mai 2026 (ex Trade Services): +5,1% YoY (BLS, 11. Juni 2026)
- US CPI Juni 2026: −0,1% MoM, +3,8% YoY (BLS Release 14. Juli 2026)
- PPI Juni 2026 Release-Datum: 15. Juli 2026, 08:30 ET (BLS Schedule)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] BLS veröffentlichte den PPI Final Demand Juni 2026 am 15. Juli mit 6,2 % YoY – klar über der 5,0 %-Schwelle. (Quelle: investing.com PPI-Kalender)
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✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold traded at approximately $4,130 per troy ounce on November 5, 2026 — a one-day gain of +1.68% (+$66) following the Democratic midterm sweep (Democrats won both the Senate and the House, per AP/NBC, November 5, 2026). Polymarket prices a 49% probability of gold exceeding $4,200 in November (as of November 5, 2026). The target is only 1.7% above today's closing level with 25 trading days remaining. Upside drivers: Iran de-escalation by new Democratic Congress, falling oil prices (WTI −1.13% to $87.13). Risk factors: profit-taking, rising real yields.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
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