US Producer Price Index (PPI) for June 2026 year-over-year above 5.0% (BLS release July 15, 2026, 08:30 ET)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 14. July 2026
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Predicted for 15. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
May 2026 PPI came in at +6.5% YoY – the highest since November 2022 – and +1.1% MoM (above the +0.7% consensus). The surge was ~80% energy-driven (+10.7% MoM goods; wholesale gasoline +23.4%). June saw energy moderate (CPI -0.1% MoM), likely trimming the YoY PPI by ~0.5–1.0 pp. However, tariff pass-through on imported goods and structurally elevated services costs support a remaining YoY reading well above 5%. Core PPI May was +5.1% YoY. No prediction market price available; own calibration: ~68%.
Data basis for this prediction
- BLS PPI Mai 2026: +6,5% YoY, +1,1% MoM (BLS Pressemitteilung 11. Juni 2026)
- Core PPI Mai 2026 (ex Trade Services): +5,1% YoY (BLS, 11. Juni 2026)
- US CPI Juni 2026: −0,1% MoM, +3,8% YoY (BLS Release 14. Juli 2026)
- PPI Juni 2026 Release-Datum: 15. Juli 2026, 08:30 ET (BLS Schedule)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
ONS data for May 2026 showed UK CPI at +2.8% YoY (unchanged from April). Transport made the largest positive contribution at +6.8% YoY. For June, no deflationary shocks are visible: energy prices rose due to the Hormuz crisis, wages remain elevated, and services inflation is stubbornly high (Babypips: 'services surge'). UK inflation has consistently hovered in the 2.7–2.9% range throughout 2026. Structurally, a drop below 2.5% in a single month without a clear supply shock can be ruled out. No direct prediction market value for UK June CPI identified.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
WTI crude was trading at $79.56/bbl on July 14, 2026 – roughly $2.56 above the prediction threshold. The US naval blockade of Iran entered into force at 4 pm ET on July 14 (US Central Command), effectively restricting ~20% of global oil supply; Brent subsequently rose above $83/bbl. A drop below $77 by July 15 would require a daily decline of more than 3.3% – historically exceptional under these geopolitical conditions. No direct Polymarket market for WTI at $77 on July 15 identified; calibration based on current price and blockade-driven risk premium.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
In May 2026, US housing starts dropped to 1.177 million units SAAR – a six-year low with a monthly decline of –15.4%. Fannie Mae expects a moderate recovery to ~1.2 million for June. A rebound above 1.25 million would require +6.2% – historically exceptional from a six-year low. Compounding factors: Michigan Consumer Sentiment below 50 (open platform prediction), high mortgage rates in the Iran crisis environment, and a persistently stressed construction sector. Analyst consensus is ~1.20–1.24 million, meaning the 1.25 million threshold would remain untouched. No Polymarket market for this data point identified.