US Producer Price Index August 2026 (BLS, September 12, 2026): Core PPI (ex food, energy, trade services) above 3.0% year-on-year (confirmed by BLS press release by September 12, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 11. September 2026
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Predicted for 12. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
BLS releases PPI for August 2026 on September 12 — one day after CPI. The open Cassandra prediction implies Core CPI August >3.0%; Core PPI is a leading indicator for Core CPI (>75% historical correlation at inflation above 3%). Brent crude at ~$101–104/barrel creates significant upstream cost pressure. Core PCE most recently at ~3.3% (per market data September 2026), supporting continued elevated producer-price inflation. No direct market contract available; estimate from CPI/PPI correlation.
Data basis for this prediction
- BLS Release-Kalender: PPI August 2026 → Veröffentlichung 12.09.2026 (bls.gov)
- Brent-Rohöl ~101,25 USD/Barrel am 10.09.2026 (Trading Economics)
- PCE-Kernrate August 2026: ~3,3 % auf Jahresbasis (Fed/BEA, Stand September 2026)
- Offene Cassandra-Prognose: US Core CPI August 2026 > 3,0 % (BLS 11.09.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
DAX 40 closed at 25,361 on September 10, 2026 (–215 pts, –0.84%); all-time high was 26,570 on August 28, 2026. Open Cassandra prediction targets DAX September close >26,000; a year-end at 27,500 would be +8.4% from current level and +3.5% above ATH. ECB raised deposit rate to 2.50% (September 2026) — end of hiking cycle in Q4/Q1 2027 is likely and would be bullish for equities. Geopolitical risks (Brent >$100, Middle East) and possible recession fears are headwinds. Implied DAX volatility (VDAX-NEW) moderate, no extreme stress scenario priced in.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket gives 64% to a September hike (+25 bps, to 3.75–4.00%; open prediction). Historically the Fed pauses at least once after a hike to process incoming data (back-to-back hikes occurred in 2022–23 but are the exception). CME FedWatch implies ~48% October pause vs. ~52% hike as of Sept 11, 2026. The open year-end prediction (rate ≥4.00–4.25%) is compatible with a November or December hike, making an October pause structurally plausible. August CPI above 3.0% (open prediction) argues for caution; core CPI is trending lower. Close call: October pause slightly more likely than a consecutive second move.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 closed at 7,591 points on September 10, 2026 (–0.59% from previous day). For a year-end close above 7,800 points, a gain of approximately +2.8% over 3.5 months would be needed. Opposing factors: Kalshi (59%) and Polymarket (53%) see a 25bps Fed rate hike on September 16, 2026 as likely – hawkish monetary policy dampens equity markets short-term. Supporting factors: historically positive Q4 seasonal pattern ('Santa Claus Rally'), potential earnings surprises, declining inflation trajectory. No direct Polymarket market for S&P 500 year-end 2026 above 7,800 found; estimate based on macro factors and seasonal data.