US Chicago Business Barometer (Chicago PMI) August 2026 (release August 31, 2026) above 44.0 points
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 30. August 2026
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Predicted for 31. August 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Chicago PMI stood at approximately 45.3 in July 2026 (MNI/ISM) — contraction, but modest improvement from the spring trough. For August, national indicators support a stabilization: S&P Global US Mfg PMI Flash above 50.5 (existing Cassandra forecast) and ISM Mfg PMI above 54.0 (existing forecast, Sept 2). The Chicago index is regionally concentrated (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan) and typically lags national trends by 4–6 weeks. The 44.0 threshold permits a slight deterioration versus July. No Polymarket odds available; estimated probability: 65%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Chicago PMI Juli 2026: ca. 45,3 Punkte (MNI/ISM, 31. Juli 2026)
- S&P Global US Mfg PMI Flash Aug 2026: über 50,5 (Cassandra-Vorhersage, offene Vorhersage)
- ISM Mfg PMI-Vorhersage Aug 2026: über 54,0 (Cassandra-Vorhersage, Veröffentlichung 2.9.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Chicago PMI August 2026 kam bei 47,1 herein – über dem Schwellenwert von 44,0. Veröffentlicht am 28. August 2026. Quellen: CNBC, Trading Economics.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.
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✦ AI
The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.