US federal budget FY2026 (Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 30, 2026): Total deficit exceeds $2.0 trillion (official Treasury/CBO data, published approx. October 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 19. July 2026
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Predicted for 15. October 2026
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Based on: Speculative
The US budget deficit for FY2025 was approximately $1.83 trillion (Treasury close October 2025). In FY2026, several factors drive further expansion: (1) extension and expansion of the TCJA tax package (significant revenue reduction); (2) increased defense spending due to the Hormuz crisis and Ukraine support; (3) debt interest payments of ~$900B/year, remaining high despite modest Fed cuts. CBO projected a FY2026 deficit of ~$1.9 trillion before the new tax package. Post-passage, a rise to $2.0–2.3 trillion is realistic. No Polymarket/Kalshi market, but the fiscal trajectory is clearly derivable from CBO data. Final figures will be published by Treasury and CBO around mid-October 2026.
Data basis for this prediction
- CBO: Budget and Economic Outlook 2026 — FY2026-Defizit vor neuem Steuerpaket >1,9 Billionen projiziert
- US Treasury MSPD: FY2025-Defizit ca. 1,83 Billionen USD (Abschluss Oktober 2025)
- US House JEC: Economic Snapshot June 2026 — Zinsausgaben und Defizit-Trajektorie (Stand: Juni 2026)
- CNBC/Bloomberg: Trump-Steuerpaket 2026 — CBO-Scoring addiert geschätzte 300–500 Mrd. USD zum 10-Jahres-Defizit
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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