📈 Economy · Next Month

US GDP Q2 2026 advance estimate (BEA, 30 July 2026): annualised growth rate (SAAR) below 2.0%

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 17. July 2026 · Predicted for 30. July 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

70%

The BEA releases the Q2 2026 GDP advance estimate on July 30, 2026 (8:30 ET). The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model stood at 1.3% SAAR as of July 8, 2026 — well below Q1 2026's 2.1% (third estimate). The slowdown reflects a sharply declining inventory build, subdued net investment amid the Hormuz crisis, and trade policy uncertainty (tariff overhang). Manifold Markets explicitly asks whether the reading hits ≥3.0% — highly unlikely from the current nowcast. Growth below 2.0% is consistent with the GDPNow trajectory.

Data basis for this prediction

Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q2 2026 = 1,3 % SAAR (8. Juli 2026, atlantafed.org/research/gdpnow)
BEA: Advance Estimate Q2 2026 – Veröffentlichungsdatum 30. Juli 2026, 8:30 ET (bea.gov/news/schedule)
BEA: US Q1 2026 BIP (Third Estimate) = +2,1 % SAAR (bea.gov, Mai 2026)
Manifold Markets: 'Will Q2 2026 US real GDP ≥ 3.0%?' – Fragestellung impliziert Unsicherheit bei 1,3 % Nowcast

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

Die BEA-Vorabschätzung vom 30. Juli 2026 ergab ein annualisiertes reales BIP-Wachstum von 1,5 % SAAR für Q2 2026 – damit lag das Ergebnis klar unter der Schwelle von 2,0 %. Der GDPNow-Nowcast von 1,3 % (Stand 8. Juli) erwies sich als guter Indikator. Bremsend wirkten laut BEA ein Rückgang der Staatsausgaben sowie steigende Importe; leicht stützend wirkten Konsum, Investitionen und Exporte. Quellen: BEA-Pressemitteilung (bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-2nd-quarter-2026), Advisor Perspectives (advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/07/30/gdp-gross-domestic-product-q2-2026-advance-estimate).

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