📈 Economy · Next Month

US GDP Q2 2026 (BEA Advance Estimate, July 30, 2026): Real growth below 2.0% annualized

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 19. July 2026 · Predicted for 30. July 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

55%

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast stood at ~1.68% (annualized SAAR) on July 17, having fallen steadily from 3.04% at the start of the quarter on weak trade data. The Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF Q2) shows 2.1%. Tariff uncertainty, cooling consumer spending, and a slow investment cycle weigh. Manifold/Polymarket see low probability of ≥3.0%. Weighted average of both nowcast sources (1.68% + 2.1%) is ~1.9% — below the 2.0% threshold.

Data basis for this prediction

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 2026: ~1,68% SAAR (Stand 17. Juli 2026)
Philadelphia Fed SPF Q2 2026: 2,1 % Wachstumskonsens (Mai 2026)
BEA Veröffentlichungskalender: Q2 2026 Advance Estimate 30. Juli 2026
Manifold: 'Will Q2 2026 advance estimate be ≥3.0 %?' — geringe Wahrscheinlichkeit

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

Das BEA veröffentlichte am 30. Juli 2026 den Advance Estimate für Q2 2026: Reales BIP-Wachstum von 1,5 % annualisiert (SAAR) – deutlich unter der 2,0 %-Schwelle der Vorhersage. Damit traf der Nowcast von Atlanta Fed (1,68 %) die Richtung sehr gut; das tatsächliche Ergebnis lag sogar noch darunter. Bremsend wirkten sinkende Staatsausgaben und steigende Importe, die den Anstieg bei Konsum, Investitionen und Exporten teilweise aufzehrten. Quellen: BEA Pressemitteilung (bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-2nd-quarter-2026), Advisor Perspectives (advisorperspectives.com, 30.07.2026), Fox Business (foxbusiness.com/economy/us-economy-q2-2026-advance).

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