US GDP Q2 2026 Advance Estimate (BEA, July 30, 2026, 8:30 a.m. EDT) shows annualized growth above 2.5% quarter-on-quarter
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 22. July 2026
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Predicted for 30. July 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
The BEA publishes the first estimate of US GDP for Q2 2026 on July 30. The Philadelphia Fed consensus (Survey of Professional Forecasters) is 2.1% annualized, while the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model last showed 3.0% (as of approx. June 2026). This ~1 percentage point divergence signals stronger activity data than the consensus anticipates. Manifold Markets hosted a related question with implied probability of ~38–42% for >2.5%. Goldman Sachs sees 2026 US growth at 2.5%. Counterforces: tariff effects and weak net exports could weigh on GDP. Our assessment: 40%, aligned with Manifold-level.
Data basis for this prediction
- Philadelphia Fed – Survey of Professional Forecasters Q2 2026: BIP-Wachstum 2,1 % annualisiert
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow – Stand ca. Juni 2026: 3,0 % annualisiertes BIP-Wachstum Q2 2026
- Manifold Markets – 'Will Q2 2026 US GDP Advance Estimate exceed 2.5%?': ~38–42 % implizit
- BEA – GDP Release Calendar: Q2 2026 Advance Estimate, 30. Juli 2026, 08:30 Uhr EDT
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
Die BEA-Erstschätzung (Advance Estimate) für Q2 2026, veröffentlicht am 30. Juli 2026, ergab ein annualisiertes reales BIP-Wachstum von lediglich 1,5 % – deutlich unter der Schwelle von >2,5 % der Vorhersage und sogar unter dem Konsens von 2,1 %. Das Wachstum verlangsamte sich gegenüber Q1 2026 (2,1 %). Als Hauptbremsen wirkten eine gesunkene Staatsausgaben und höhere Importe (negativer Außenbeitrag), was den Zölle-Gegenwind bestätigte. Quellen: BEA (https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-2nd-quarter-2026), Advisor Perspectives (https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/07/30/gdp-gross-domestic-product-q2-2026-advance-estimate).
📈 Economy
✦ AI
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📈 Economy
✦ AI
The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
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