US Durable Goods Orders August 2026: Advance Report Shows MoM Rise Above 0.5%
Pending
β¦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 23. September 2026
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Predicted for 25. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Census Bureau releases the Advance Durable Goods report for August on September 25, 2026 (8:30 AM EDT). Market consensus per Econoday/FXStreet stands at +0.7% MoM (as of September 23, 2026). The +0.5% threshold is deliberately below consensus to account for the indicator's high dispersion from defense and aerospace orders (historically Β±3β5% monthly swings). Supportive factors: S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 at 52.0 (mildly expansive, released September 23, 2026) and robust FY2026 federal defense spending. No Polymarket market available; the consensus of +0.7% implies roughly 65% probability of clearing the +0.5% threshold.
Data basis for this prediction
- Econoday / FXStreet Konsens: +0,7 % MoM, Stand 23. September 2026
- S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI September 2026: 52,0 (verΓΆffentlicht 23. September 2026)
- Census Bureau Advance Report Termin: 25. September 2026, 8:30 Uhr EDT
- S&P 500 Stand 22./23. September 2026: ~7.762 Punkte (Trading Economics)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
π Economy
β¦ AI
Gold trades at ~$4,350/oz on September 23, 2026 (+28% YTD), in a sustained structural uptrend. Drivers: ongoing central bank buying (Q2 2026: 183 tonnes, 5th consecutive quarter above 100t; World Gold Council), USD weakness (EUR/USD ~1.1450), elevated inflation (US Core PCE β₯3.1%, Brent ~$98β100), geopolitical risk premium (Iran snapback Sept 28, Middle East, Taiwan). The $4,600 target implies +5.7% from current levels to year-end β structurally comparable to the open DAX year-end prediction (>27,000; +5.6% from 25,579). No direct Polymarket/Kalshi market for gold year-end found; log-normal calibration (Ο ~15% p.a., positive drift ~8% p.a.) yields P(>$4,600) β 60β64%.
π Economy
β¦ AI
Weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20, 2026 are released by the BLS on September 24 at 8:30 AM ET. The labor market remains resilient: August payrolls beat consensus by a wide margin (+162K vs. expected +53K), unemployment holds at 4.1%. Prior week came in at 222K (revised from 219K); market consensus for this week is 225K. No Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this release; own calibration: with consensus at 225K and typical standard deviation ~12K, P(< 230K) β 66β70%.
π Economy
β¦ AI
JPMorgan Chase reports Q3 FY2026 results on October 13, 2026, before market open (confirmed by TipRanks). Analyst consensus EPS stands at $5.88 per share (TipRanks, as of September 2026). On the revenue threshold: JPMorgan's Managed Net Revenue for Q3 2025 was approximately $42.7 billion; assuming 3β5% YoY growth (supported by 2026 Fed rate hikes β current rate 3.75β4.00%, September hike at 12:0 vote per Schwab) implies an expected Q3 2026 range of ~$44.0β44.8 billion. The $44.0 billion threshold sits at the lower end of the estimate range. Risk: credit losses in a high-rate environment could trigger reserve builds. No Polymarket quote available; calibration via consensus EPS and historical revenue growth yields approximately 68%.