📈 Economy
· Next Week
US Durable Goods Orders – core rate (July 2026, ex aircraft and defense, released August 26, 2026): monthly gain of at least +0.5% versus June 2026 (confirmed by BEA press release or Bloomberg)
Probability
52%
US core durable goods orders (ex aircraft, ex defense) are a reliable leading indicator for business investment. Over the past six releases, monthly readings ranged from -0.2% to +0.8% with a mean of ~+0.4%. Bloomberg consensus for July 2026 is approximately +0.4%. A beat to ≥+0.5% is consistent with the recently expansionary ISM Manufacturing environment (existing open prediction: ISM Mfg. >52 for August). No direct prediction market; forecast sits modestly above the consensus median.
Data basis for this prediction
- BEA: US Durable Goods Orders Juni 2026 – Kernrate +0,5% MoM (Referenz-Vormonat)
- Bloomberg Economist Survey August 2026: Consensus ~+0,4% für Core Durable Goods Juli 2026
- ISM Manufacturing PMI Juli 2026: Expansion (letzter verfügbarer Wert vor Veröffentlichung)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] US Kernrate langlebige Güter (nondefense capital goods ex aircraft), Juli 2026, veröffentlicht heute 8:30 ET: +0,9 % MoM gegenüber Juni 2026. Quelle: TradingKey-Wirtschaftskalender (Actual-Wert). 0,9 % ≥ 0,5 % → Schwellenwert erfüllt.