📈 Economy · Next Month

US July 2026 Jobs Report (BLS, August 7, 2026): Nonfarm Payrolls exceed 80,000 new jobs

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 18. July 2026 · Predicted for 7. August 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

72%

The US labor market has been resilient throughout 2026: June added 172,000 jobs (vs 85,000 consensus), unemployment at 4.3%. The 80,000 threshold is well below the six-month trend. Risks: energy sector layoffs at lower WTI prices (this platform predicts WTI >$80/bbl on July 22 — moderate oil prices), Iran conflict dampening capital investment. Even a significant labor market slowdown is unlikely to breach 80,000. No specific Polymarket market for July 2026 NFP available.

Data basis for this prediction

BLS Employment Situation Juni 2026: +172.000 NFP vs. 85.000 Konsens, Arbeitslosigkeit 4,3 % (bls.gov/news.release)
BLS Veröffentlichungsplan: Arbeitsmarktbericht Juli 2026 am 7. August 2026, 08:30 Uhr ET (bls.gov/schedule)
Financecalendar.com: US Employment Situation (NFP) August 2026 Release Details
Signalpro: NFP Juli 2026 Veröffentlichung 7. August 2026 (signalpro.markets)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

Der BLS-Bericht vom 7. August 2026 wies einen Rückgang der Nonfarm Payrolls um -23.000 Stellen aus – weit unter der Schwelle von +80.000 und sogar im negativen Bereich. Hauptursachen: Lokale Bildungsbehörden verloren 50.000 Stellen, Einzelhandel -19.000, Finanzsektor -14.000. Zudem wurden die Vormonatswerte massiv nach unten revidiert (Juni: von +57.000 auf +20.000; Mai: von +129.000 auf +63.000). Die angenommene Robustheit des Arbeitsmarkts auf Basis der Juni-Zahl (+172.000) erwies sich als nicht zutreffend, da diese Zahl selbst stark revidiert wurde. Quellen: BLS (bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm), Quartz (qz.com/us-payrolls-july-2026-jobs-report-080726), CNBC (cnbc.com/2026/08/07/jobs-report-july-2026.html).

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