US Advance Retail Sales for June 2026 (Census Bureau, release 16 July 2026): Monthly change positive (MoM above 0.0%)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 13. July 2026
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Predicted for 16. July 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Consensus estimate is +0.3% MoM; Goldman Sachs estimates a more conservative +0.1% — both positive. Coresight Research describes June 2026 as showing 'resilient growth amid weakening consumer fundamentals'. May's reading was a strong +0.9%. With stable employment data and solid credit-card spending, a positive print is considerably more likely than a decline. No Polymarket/Kalshi market for this release; own estimate ~62%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Konsensprognose: +0,3 % MoM Juni 2026 (fxstreet.com, Stand 13.07.2026)
- Goldman Sachs-Schätzung: +0,1 % MoM (awareinvest.com, Stand 13.07.2026)
- Coresight Research: 'Resilient Growth Amid Weakening Consumer Fundamentals', Juni 2026 Outlook
- Veröffentlichungstermin bestätigt: 16. Juli 2026, 8:30 Uhr EDT (Census Bureau Release Schedule)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] US Advance Retail Sales Juni 2026 MoM: +0,2 % (>0,0 %). Quelle: US Census Bureau, 16. Juli 2026
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.