📈 Economy · Next Week

US 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) closes above 4.80% on 4 September 2026 (confirmed by Bloomberg or US Treasury Daily Yield Curve)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 29. August 2026 · Predicted for 4. September 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

55%

The US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.73% on August 28, up 5bp after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote (Aug 28, 2026) where he stated the Fed 'has more work to do', lifting September rate-hike expectations from below 50% to 68%. Bitcoin fell 3.3% to $77,678, EUR/USD to 1.1583. The NFP report (Sep 4) is the primary catalyst for the next yield move: a strong print could drive yields above 4.80%. A downward surprise is possible on soft employment data.

Data basis for this prediction

US 10Y Treasury yield: 4,73 % Schlusskurs 28.08.2026, +5 bp durch Warsh-Rede (etftrends.com)
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, Jackson Hole 28.08.2026: 'has more work to do' – Sep-Zinserwartungen 68 % (Washington Post / Yahoo Finance)
easternherald.com: Bitcoin fiel auf 77.678 USD nach Warsh-Rede (29.08.2026)
EUR/USD: 1,1583 am 28.08.2026 (tradingeconomics.com); Renditeanstieg von 4,68 % (27.08.) auf 4,73 % (28.08.)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

[Vorzeitig entschieden] US-10Y-Rendite lag am 3. September bei 4,766 % und fiel am 4. September nach dem schwachen NFP weiter ab – schloss unter 4,80 %. Quelle: TradingEconomics / CNBC.

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