US 10-Year Treasury yield (US10Y) closes above 4.70% on 28 August 2026 (day of Warsh keynote at Jackson Hole)
Miss
β¦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 24. August 2026
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Predicted for 28. August 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The US 10-year yield stands at 4.71% on 24 August 2026. Polymarket sees 68% probability that the Fed leaves rates unchanged in September 2026 (separate open Cassandra prediction: Fed holds at 3.50-3.75%); also 86% for 0 rate cuts in 2026 overall. Fed Chair Warsh delivers his Jackson Hole keynote on 28 August. A hawkish Warsh message (no September cut) should keep or lift the yield above 4.70%. Only a surprisingly dovish pivot would push US10Y clearly below 4.70% β unlikely given sticky core inflation (Core PCE prediction: β₯3.2% YoY, separate Cassandra forecast).
Data basis for this prediction
- US 10Y Treasury Rendite: 4,71% am 24. August 2026 (TradingEconomics / CNBC)
- Polymarket: 68% Wahrscheinlichkeit fΓΌr Fed-Hold im September 2026 (polymarket.com, Stand 24. August 2026)
- Polymarket: 86% fΓΌr 0 Fed-Zinssenkungen in 2026 gesamt (polymarket.com, Stand 24. August 2026)
- FinancialJuice Economic Calendar: Warsh-Rede Jackson Hole, 28. August 2026 (Week Ahead 24.β28. August)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] US-10-Jahres-Treasury-Rendite bei ca. 4,676β4,68 % β unterhalb der Schwelle von 4,70 %. Quelle: CNBC, FRED.
π Economy
β¦ AI
The S&P 500 closed at 7,636.36 on 9 September 2026. Falling below 7,450 by month-end would require a 2.4% decline. Headwinds: Fed rate hike of 25bp on 16 September (CentralBank.Watch: 59% probability), August PPI above expectations (+5.4% YoY), Iran-Gulf risk premium. Stabilizing factors: hike largely priced in (Polymarket: 93% for zero 2026 cuts), Q2 earnings solid, no recession signals. Historically, a single 25bp September hike rarely causes a monthly decline above 2.5%.
π Economy
β¦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 β an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
π Economy
β¦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a Ο range of roughly Β±5.5% by month-end β the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.