📈 Economy
· Next Week
US 10-year Treasury yield closes below 4.60% p.a. on August 29, 2026 (confirmed by Bloomberg, US Treasury or CNBC close)
Probability
42%
US 10-year yield currently at 4.74% (August 21, 2026). Sequential scenario: On August 28, Warsh per open prediction signals rate pause → yield falls >5 bps (to ~4.69% or below). On August 29, Core PCE data (July) arrives: open prediction expects year-on-year ≤2.3% — additional bond rally catalyst. From ~4.69% to <4.60% requires another 9 bps — possible but not certain. Weak PCE + rate pause signal would historically produce a bond rally of 10–15 bps within 48h. CME FedWatch priced >70% probability of September pause as of August 21.
Data basis for this prediction
- TradingEconomics: US 10-Jahres-Treasury-Rendite 4,74 % (21. August 2026)
- Offene Plattformprognose: Warsh Jackson-Hole 28. Aug – 10yr fällt am gleichen Tag um >5 Bps
- Offene Plattformprognose: US Core PCE Juli 2026 (Veröff. 29. Aug) – Jahresrate ≤2,3 % erwartet
- CME FedWatch Tool: >70 % Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für Fed-Zinspause September 2026 (Stand Aug 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Die US-10-Jahres-Treasury-Rendite schloss am 28. August 2026 bei 4,73 % – über der Schwelle von 4,60 %. Quelle: etftrends.com ('Treasury Yields Snapshot: August 28, 2026')