📈 Economy · Next Week

UK Consumer Price Index September 2026: Annual Rate Exceeds 3.3 Percent — ONS Release October 21, 2026, confirmed by ONS or Bloomberg by October 21, 2026, 07:00 BST

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 10. October 2026 · Predicted for 21. October 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

68%

UK CPI accelerated from 2.9% y/y in July to 3.1% in August 2026 (ONS, September 16, 2026). The Bank of England holds its base rate at 3.75% and projects CPI of ~3.75% for Q4 2026, signalling further tightening. Morningstar already headlines the September release with 'Has Inflation Hit 4%?'. A September reading above 3.3% — +0.2 percentage points versus August — follows the linear trend. No direct Polymarket market, but BoE projections and analyst commentary support ~68% probability.

Data basis for this prediction

ONS UK CPI August 2026: +3,1 % y/y, CPIH +3,3 % (veröffentlicht 16.09.2026, ons.gov.uk; Salarywise.co.uk)
Bank of England MPC September 2026: Leitzins 3,75 %, CPI-Prognose ~3,75 % für Q4 2026 (bankofengland.co.uk)
Morningstar Preview: 'UK September CPI — Has Inflation Hit 4%?' (global.morningstar.com, Stand 10.10.2026)
ONS Veröffentlichungskalender: UK CPI September-Daten, Publikationsdatum 21.10.2026, 07:00 BST (ons.gov.uk)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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