📈 Economy
· Next Month
UK GDP Q2 2026 (ONS Flash Estimate, ca. August 13, 2026): Growth of at least 0.3% vs Q1 2026
Probability
65%
The UK's ONS releases its Q2 2026 first quarterly estimate around August 13, 2026. Berenberg Bank economist Andrew Wishart expects 0.3–0.4% QoQ 'barring a significant fall in June monthly data.' HM Treasury aggregates a full-year 2026 consensus forecast of +0.9% (average of independent forecasters, June 2026). TechTimes reported July 16, 2026 that the UK is leading G7 on economic growth. April and May 2026 monthly GDP data (already released) point to a robust Q2. Implied probability from forecaster consensus: ~65%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Berenberg Bank (A. Wishart): UK GDP Q2 2026 Prognose 0,3–0,4 % QoQ (Juli 2026)
- HM Treasury: 'Forecasts for the UK Economy – July 2026', Konsens +0,9 % Jahres-BIP 2026
- TechTimes (16. Juli 2026): 'UK Economy Leads G7 on Growth as Rate-Hike Pressure Builds'
- ONS Release Calendar: GDP first quarterly estimate Q2 2026 erwartet ca. 13. August 2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die ONS veröffentlichte am 13. August 2026 planmäßig die erste Quartalsprognose für Q2 2026 (April–Juni 2026). Das reale UK-BIP wuchs um 0,4 % gegenüber Q1 2026 – damit wurde die Schwelle von mindestens 0,3 % klar übertroffen. Das Ergebnis entsprach exakt dem Marktkonsens (+0,4 % erwartet) und lag innerhalb der von Berenberg-Ökonom Andrew Wishart genannten Spanne (0,3–0,4 %). Haupttreiber war der Dienstleistungssektor (+0,5 %). Quellen: ONS-Bulletin 'GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: April to June 2026' (ons.gov.uk), GB News, InvestingLive.