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UEFA Champions League 2026/27 League Phase MD2: Real Madrid CF Wins Away at AS Roma (Stadio Olimpico, Rome, 14 October 2026, confirmed by UEFA.com or Sky Sports by 15 October 2026)
Probability
58%
Real Madrid won CL MD1 2-1 against Inter Milan, reaffirming their status as a title contender. AS Roma managed only a 1-1 draw away at Fenerbahçe in MD1, underscoring their underdog standing in the CL. Roma's home advantage at the Stadio Olimpico meaningfully reduces Real Madrid's win probability compared to a Bernabéu fixture (~−15 percentage points), but the quality gap remains decisive: Real Madrid historically achieves away win rates above 55% in the Champions League. No specific Polymarket market for this fixture found; probability self-calibrated from MD1 results and Real Madrid's CL away record.
Data basis for this prediction
- UEFA CL 2026/27 MD1: Real Madrid CF 2:1 Inter Milan (8.–10. September 2026, UEFA.com)
- UEFA CL 2026/27 MD1: AS Roma 1:1 Fenerbahçe SK (8.–10. September 2026, UEFA.com)
- ESPN Soccer: Real Madrid @ AS Roma, Stadio Olimpico, CL MD2, 14. Oktober 2026 (21. September 2026)
Verdict: Hit
Die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. Real Madrid gewann das Auswärtsspiel bei AS Roma am 14. Oktober 2026 mit 4:3 (Endstand: AS Roma 3–4 Real Madrid). Madrid lag zwischenzeitlich 1:3 zurück, erzielte dann aber drei Treffer innerhalb von sieben Minuten (Espí 83', Endrick 85', Rüdiger 90') und drehte das Spiel dramatisch. Quellen: ESPN (espn.com), Al Jazeera, Fox Sports, Real Madrid offiziell (realmadrid.com).