Thursday, 1. October 2026 · Next update: 06:00 DE EN Log in
Cassandra.news
Tomorrow's news. Today.
💻 Technology · Next Week

TSMC reports September 2026 monthly revenue exceeding NT$500 billion (report date 8 October 2026)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 1. October 2026 · Predicted for 8. October 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle
Probability
67%

TSMC posted a record August 2026 revenue of NT$514.806 billion (+53.3% YoY, +10.1% MoM). Cumulative Jan–Aug 2026 revenues: NT$3,386.87 billion (+39.3% YoY). Seasonal tailwinds from the Apple iPhone high season in September and sustained Nvidia/AMD orders support a similarly strong September figure. Estimated Sep-2025 base of NT$325–335 billion implies a +53% YoY September 2026 figure of ~NT$498–513 billion, making the NT$500 billion threshold approximately the median of that range. Headlines indicate another strong September ('can't keep up with demand'). No Polymarket price found for this specific threshold.

Data basis for this prediction
  • TSMC Investor Relations: August 2026 Monthly Revenue = NT$514.806 Mrd. (+53,3% YoY), veröffentlicht 10. September 2026 (investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026)
  • CNBC: 'World's largest contract chipmaker TSMC sees August revenue surge over 53% to record high', 10. September 2026
  • Yahoo Finance / AOL: 'Taiwan Semiconductor September Revenue Surges 53% and Can't Keep Up With Demand', Oktober 2026
  • TSMC Financial Calendar: September-Umsatzbericht am 8. Oktober 2026, 13:30 Uhr Taipeh-Zeit (investor.tsmc.com)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
Related Predictions
💻 Technology ✦ AI

ASML Holding N.V. reports Q3 FY2026 net sales above €11.5 billion (quarterly report approx. 14 October 2026)

ASML (NASDAQ/Euronext: ASML) guided Q3 2026 net sales to €11.0–12.0 billion at 55–57% gross margin. In Q2 2026 the company posted €9.3 billion net sales, beating guidance ('Q2 2026 beats guidance as AI demand lifts outlook'). Full-year 2026 guidance was raised to €43–45 billion net sales. Exceeding the guidance midpoint of €11.5 billion requires +23.7% sequential growth from Q2 — consistent with ASML's typical H2 seasonal strength driven by EUV system deliveries. Given the Q2 guidance beat and raised full-year outlook, a midpoint beat is plausible at ~62%. No specific Polymarket price found.

62%
Next Month · Predicted for 14. Oct 2026
💻 Technology ✦ AI

Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine 2026: Emmanuel Mignot and Masashi Yanagisawa win for the discovery of the orexin system

Emmanuel Mignot (Stanford) and Masashi Yanagisawa (UT Southwestern/HHMI) independently discovered the orexin/hypocretin system, whose deficiency causes narcolepsy — one of the last major unsolved sleep-wake puzzles in neurobiology. Announcement: October 5, 2026, 11:30 CEST. Key calibration signal: the duo received the 2026 Albert Lasker Award for Basic Medical Research — historically the single most reliable Nobel predictor (~25% of Lasker laureates subsequently win the Nobel). Kalshi prices the GLP-1 team (Drucker/Holst/Mojsov, Ozempic pathway) at ~26% as the market leader; Mignot/Yanagisawa appear underpriced given the fresh Lasker signal. Counter-thesis: the societal impact of the GLP-1 discovery (global obesity epidemic) is enormous, which the Nobel Committee might exploit opportunistically.

22%
Next Week · Predicted for 5. Oct 2026
💻 Technology ✦ AI

Nobel Prize in Physics 2026: Alexei Kitaev (Caltech) wins for topological quantum computing

The 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics will be announced October 6, 2026 (11:45 CEST). Alexei Kitaev (Caltech) leads Kalshi prediction markets at ~21% — for foundational work on topological qubits (anyon-based Toric Code), fault-tolerant quantum computing, and the concept of topological quantum computation on which Microsoft built its qubit strategy. Close behind: Charles Kane (Penn, ~16%, topological insulators) and John Preskill (Caltech, ~15%, quantum error correction). Quantum computing has enormous visibility in 2026 through first commercial breakthroughs and the Google-IBM-Microsoft race; the Stockholm committee could recognize the field earlier than expected. No single candidate dominates — the race is genuinely open.

21%
Next Week · Predicted for 6. Oct 2026