⚽ Sports · Next Week

Tour de France 2026 Stage 18 (Voiron–Orcières-Merlette, 185.2 km, July 23, 2026): Ben Healy (EF Education–EasyPost) wins in a breakaway

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 14. July 2026 · Predicted for 23. July 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

17%

Stage 18 is expert-consensus breakaway territory (Velo/Outside Online, Cyclingnews): the Orcières-Merlette summit finish (7.1 km at 6.7%) is insufficiently selective for GC gaps — Pogačar and rivals will save energy for decisive stages 19–20. Ben Healy (EF Education–EasyPost) is explicitly named in multiple stage previews as the top candidate for hard uphill breakaway days with chaotic profiles. Individual probability ~17%. No Polymarket quote.

Data basis for this prediction

Velo/Outside Online: TdF 2026 Stage 18 Preview – 'Breakaway stage, Ben Healy most likely to convert'
Cyclingnews: TdF 2026 Stage 18 Route – Voiron–Orcières-Merlette 185,2 km (procyclingstats.com)
CyclingUpToDate: TdF 2026 GC Preview – Pogačar vs. Vingegaard Stufenanalyse

Verdict: Miss

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Etappe 18 TdF 2026: Ben Healy (EF Education–EasyPost) gewann nicht. Sieger war Victor Campenaerts (Lotto), nicht Healy. Quelle: BBC Sport 'Campenaerts wins stage 18 as Pogacar maintains lead', escapecollective.com

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