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Tour de France 2026 Stage 18 (July 24, 2026, Voiron → Orcières-Merlette, 185.2 km): Thymen Arensman (INEOS Grenadiers, NED) wins the stage
Probability
20%
Stage 18 is an Alpine summit finish at Orcières-Merlette (1,825m, final climb 7.1 km at 6.7%) with 3,900m of elevation. GC contenders will save energy for Stage 20 (Alpe d'Huez) and 21 (Paris), making this classic breakaway terrain. CyclingStage.com rates Thymen Arensman (INEOS Grenadiers), Tom Pidcock, Luke Plapp, and Quinn Simmons as equally matched three-star favorites. No Polymarket market available. With four roughly equal top candidates, individual probability is ~18–22% per rider. Arensman edge: INEOS Grenadiers has no GC contender left in the race and can fully commit to stage hunting; Arensman is in outstanding climbing form in 2026.
Data basis for this prediction
- CyclingStage.com – TdF 2026 Stage 18 Favourites: Arensman, Pidcock, Plapp, Simmons (3 Sterne je), Juli 2026
- CyclingStage.com – TdF 2026 Stage 18 Route Profile: Voiron–Orcières-Merlette, 185,2 km, 3.900 Hm
- Olympics.com – Tour de France 2026 Stage 18 Preview (Juli 2026)
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Tour de France 2026, Etappe 18 (Voiron → Orcières-Merlette, 23. Juli): Gewinner war Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost), nicht Thymen Arensman (INEOS Grenadiers). Quellen: CyclingUpToDate, Brujulabike, Cyclingnews.