⚽ Sports · Next Week

Tour de France 2026 – Stage 16 (Individual Time Trial 26 km, Evian-les-Bains–Thonon-les-Bains, July 21, 2026): Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step) wins the stage

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 13. July 2026 · Predicted for 21. July 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

34%

Stage 16 is a 26 km individual time trial: 9.6 km climb (~4.2% avg) to 800 m, then 7 km descent, 9 km flat to Thonon-les-Bains. Remco Evenepoel is Olympic TT champion (Paris 2024) and two-time Road World Champion in the ITT (2022, 2023) — a profile perfectly suited to his specialty. Tadej Pogačar (GC leader, +2:42 over Vingegaard) is also competitive but likely to manage reserves tactically. Jonas Vingegaard (2nd GC) is solid but slightly behind Evenepoel in pure TT ability. Bookmaker odds imply ~32–36% for Evenepoel, ~33–37% for Pogačar, ~12–16% for Vingegaard as stage winner. The forecast backs Evenepoel as the more specific TT specialist at this distance.

Data basis for this prediction

CyclingStage.com: TdF 2026 Etappe 16 – Evian→Thonon, 26 km ITT, 21.07.2026 (13.07.2026)
Cyclingnews: TdF 2026 GC – Pogačar +2:42 Vingegaard, +3:30 Evenepoel (13.07.2026)
Wikipedia: Remco Evenepoel – Olympiasieger TT 2024, Weltmeister TT 2022 & 2023

Verdict: Miss

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Remco Evenepoel fährt 2026 für Red Bull–Bora–Hansgrohe, NICHT für Soudal Quick-Step. Er wechselte vor der Saison 2026 das Team. Ein Sieg von Evenepoel für Soudal Quick-Step ist damit strukturell unmöglich. Quellen: Cyclingnews, mehrere Vorberichte TdF 2026.

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