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Tour de France 2026, Stage 15 (Champagnole–Plateau de Solaison, 183.9 km, July 19, 2026): Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) wins the mountain summit finish
Probability
45%
Stage 15 is the queen stage before the second rest day: 183.9 km with ~4,700 m elevation gain, summit finish at the new Plateau de Solaison (11.3 km @ 9.0% average, sections at 11%), preceded by the Col de la Croisette (7.6 km @ 8.8%). After Stage 10, Pogačar leads the GC by 3:36 over Vingegaard (2nd) and 4:06 over Evenepoel (3rd). Cyclingnews and Tour-Magazin name Pogačar, Vingegaard and the 4th-placed rider (Decathlon CMA CGM) as main favorites. Vingegaard won a similar finish at Col du Granon in 2022 — an attack is possible, but Pogačar has countered every such move this season and has no strategic need to overextend. No Polymarket market found specifically for Stage 15. Own estimate: Pogačar ~45%, Vingegaard ~28%, field ~27%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Cyclingnews.com: Tour de France 2026 Stage 15 preview (14. Juli 2026) – Plateau de Solaison 11,3 km @ 9 %, Favoriten: Pogačar, Vingegaard
- TdF GC-Klassement nach Etappe 10 (Cyclingnews / Olympics.com, Juli 2026): Pogačar 1., Vingegaard +3:36, Evenepoel +4:06
- Tour-Magazin.de: Stage 15 Streckenanalyse & Favoriten (14. Juli 2026)
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) gewann Etappe 15 (Champagnole–Plateau de Solaison, 183,9 km) solo. Quelle: ProCyclingStats, Arkansas Democrat-Gazette.