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Tour de France 2026 Stage 14 (Mulhouse–Le Markstein, 155.3 km, July 18): Tadej Pogačar wins the mountain finish
Probability
55%
Stage 14 packs 3,800 m of climbing through the Vosges to Le Markstein ski resort – described by Cyclingnews as 'tailor-made for Pogacar'. Pogačar leads the GC by 2:42 over Vingegaard as of July 13 (cyclingnews.com). He won the last Tour finish at Markstein in 2023. The profile features the maiden Tour ascent of Col du Haag (11.2 km, 7.3%), favouring explosive climbers. No direct Polymarket market for stage winner; aggregated bookmaker odds imply Pogačar as clear favourite (~45–55%).
Data basis for this prediction
- TdF 2026 GC-Klassement nach Etappe 10: Pogačar +2:42 über Vingegaard (cyclingnews.com, 13.07.2026)
- Stage-14-Preview: 'GC showdown in the Vosges', Col du Haag 11,2 km @ 7,3 %, 3.800 Hm (cyclingstage.com / cyclingnews.com, 2026)
- Velo Outside: 'Stage 14: An Explosive Mountain Stage' – Pogacar als Etappenfavorit (velo.outsideonline.com, 2026)
- 2023 TdF Markstein-Etappensieger: Tadej Pogačar (Wikipedia, Tour de France 2023)
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Pogačar gewann die Bergankunft Le Markstein – er distanzierte alle Konkurrenten (Vingegaard +44 s, Evenepoel +48 s). Quelle: VAVEL, 18. Juli 2026.