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Tour de France 2026 – Stage 10 (July 14, Bastille Day, Aurillac–Le Lioran, 167 km): Tadej Pogačar wins the mountain finish

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 11. July 2026 · Predicted for 14. July 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

42%

Pogačar leads the GC after Stage 9 by +2:42 over Jonas Vingegaard and already won Stage 6 with a long-range attack on Col du Tourmalet. Stage 10 on July 14 (Bastille Day) features 7 categorized climbs and a summit finish at Le Lioran ski resort — prime Pogačar terrain. Bookmaker odds imply him as the clear overall Tour favorite (~79%); Vingegaard (won here in 2024 in a photo finish), Evenepoel, del Toro, and French hopes Seixas/Martinez are also dangerous. No Polymarket market found for this specific stage; own calibration: 42%.

Data basis for this prediction

Cyclingnews: GC-Tabelle nach Etappe 9 – Pogačar +2:42 vor Vingegaard (Stand 11.07.2026)
Cyclingstage.com Stage-10-Vorschau: 167 km, 7 Bergwertungen, Ziel Le Lioran (14.07.2026)
CyclingUpToDate: Pogačar Etappe-6-Sieg mit Fernattacke Col du Tourmalet (Juli 2026)
Velo/Outside: Vingegaard gewann 2024 in Le Lioran im Fotofinish vor Pogačar

Verdict: Hit

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Identischer Sachverhalt wie id 449: Pogačar gewann die Bergankunft auf dem Col de Lioran solo (Etappe 10, 14. Juli, Bastille Day). Quellen: Cyclingnews ('shreds the field ... solo climbing charge'), cyclinguptodate.com ('takes solo win on Le Lioran').

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