⚽ Sports
· Next Week
Tour de France 2026 – Stage 10 (July 14, Bastille Day, Aurillac–Le Lioran, 167 km): Tadej Pogačar wins the mountain finish
Probability
42%
Pogačar leads the GC after Stage 9 by +2:42 over Jonas Vingegaard and already won Stage 6 with a long-range attack on Col du Tourmalet. Stage 10 on July 14 (Bastille Day) features 7 categorized climbs and a summit finish at Le Lioran ski resort — prime Pogačar terrain. Bookmaker odds imply him as the clear overall Tour favorite (~79%); Vingegaard (won here in 2024 in a photo finish), Evenepoel, del Toro, and French hopes Seixas/Martinez are also dangerous. No Polymarket market found for this specific stage; own calibration: 42%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Cyclingnews: GC-Tabelle nach Etappe 9 – Pogačar +2:42 vor Vingegaard (Stand 11.07.2026)
- Cyclingstage.com Stage-10-Vorschau: 167 km, 7 Bergwertungen, Ziel Le Lioran (14.07.2026)
- CyclingUpToDate: Pogačar Etappe-6-Sieg mit Fernattacke Col du Tourmalet (Juli 2026)
- Velo/Outside: Vingegaard gewann 2024 in Le Lioran im Fotofinish vor Pogačar
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Identischer Sachverhalt wie id 449: Pogačar gewann die Bergankunft auf dem Col de Lioran solo (Etappe 10, 14. Juli, Bastille Day). Quellen: Cyclingnews ('shreds the field ... solo climbing charge'), cyclinguptodate.com ('takes solo win on Le Lioran').