TotalEnergies SE (NYSE: TTE) beats Q2 2026 adjusted non-GAAP EPS consensus of approx. USD 2.68 per share (July 23, 2026)
Miss
โฆ AI-generated prediction
Published on 22. July 2026
ยท
Predicted for 23. July 2026
ยท
Based on: Historical Cycle
TotalEnergies reports Q2 2026 results on July 23, 2026 (8:00 AM CET). MarketBeat consensus is USD 2.68/share. Bull case: (1) Brent averaged well above Q2 2025 (when EPS was USD 1.57, a miss), (2) improving downstream margins, (3) BofA flagged 'better-than-feared' Q2 (MarketScreener, July 2026), (4) Q1 2026 adj. net income USD 5.4bn / EPS USD 2.45 beat consensus by +17.8%. Bear case: weaker LNG trading margins. WTI at USD 84.42 (July 22) supported by US naval blockade of Iranian ports since July 14. No Polymarket/Kalshi markets found; estimate based on analyst consensus and historical beat pattern.
Data basis for this prediction
- MarketBeat: TTE Q2 2026 EPS-Konsens 2,68 USD (22.07.2026)
- BofA-Note: 'Better-than-feared Q2' โ MarketScreener (Juli 2026)
- TotalEnergies Q1 2026 Ergebnis: adj. Nettoertrag 5,4 Mrd. USD, EPS 2,45 USD (+17,8 % vs. Konsens) โ TotalEnergies Newsroom (28.04.2026)
- WTI 84,42 USD/bbl am 22.07.2026 (+14 % in 30 Tagen, US-Seeblockade Iran) โ Fortune (22.07.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] TotalEnergies meldete Q2 2026 bereinigten Non-GAAP-EPS von exakt $2,68 โ entspricht dem Konsens, kein Beat. Das bereinigte Nettoeinkommen ($6 Mrd.) lag 'in line with expectations'. Quelle: GuruFocus / StockTitan (23. Juli 2026).
๐ Economy
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The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a ฯ range of roughly ยฑ5.5% by month-end โ the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.
๐ Economy
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Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 โ an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
๐ Economy
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Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.