🍾 Beverages · Next Week

The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) beats Q2-2026 adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus of approx. $0.92 per share (28 July 2026, before market open, confirmed by Coca-Cola press release)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 25. July 2026 · Predicted for 28. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

73%

Coca-Cola has beaten EPS consensus in ~80% of the last eight quarters. Q2-2026 consensus is approx. $0.92 Non-GAAP EPS (+5.6% YoY, source: Yahoo Finance Earnings Preview 21 July 2026). KO benefits from strong pricing power in emerging markets, international volume growth, and a diversified portfolio. No Polymarket/Kalshi market found. Estimate of 73% = ~80% historical beat rate discounted for tariff and commodity risks.

Data basis for this prediction

Yahoo Finance: KO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview – Konsens-EPS $0,92 (+5,6% YoY) (21.07.2026)
The Markets Daily: 'Coca-Cola (KO) expected to post quarterly earnings on Tuesday 28.07.2026'
Historische KO EPS-Beat-Rate: ~80% der letzten 8 Quartale (FactSet-Daten)
KO Earnings Calendar: 28. Juli 2026, vor Börseneröffnung (Seeking Alpha, Juli 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

Coca-Cola meldete am 28. Juli 2026 (vor Börseneröffnung) einen bereinigten Non-GAAP-EPS (Comparable EPS) von 0,97 USD – ein Plus von 11 % gegenüber dem Vorjahr und 0,04 USD bzw. 4,3 % über dem Analystenkonsens von ca. 0,93 USD. Auch der Umsatz übertraf die Erwartungen (13,38 Mrd. USD vs. 13,16 Mrd. USD Konsens). Coca-Cola erhöhte zudem die Jahresprognose auf 9–10 % vergleichbares EPS-Wachstum. Quellen: Coca-Cola Pressemitteilung (investors.coca-colacompany.com), Yahoo Finance, CNBC, StockStory.

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Boston Beer Company (NYSE: SAM) reports Q3 FY2026 (July–September 2026, release ~October 2026) year-over-year decline in Truly Hard Seltzer depletion volumes (confirmed by Boston Beer press release or Bloomberg by November 15, 2026)

The hard seltzer category has been in structural decline since its 2021 peak. Truly (second-largest brand after White Claw) already reported depletion volume declines of –6% to –9% YoY in Q1–Q2 FY2026. Drivers of ongoing pressure: market saturation, competition from RTD cocktails and FMBs, growth of non-alcoholic alternatives. Boston Beer itself cited 'continued category headwinds' for Hard Seltzer in recent guidance documents. A Q3 2026 reversal without external catalysts (product relaunch, price cut) is highly unlikely.

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Molson Coors Beverage Company (NYSE: TAP) reports organic net revenue decline year-on-year in its Q3 FY2026 quarterly report (July–September 2026, release approx. October/November 2026, confirmed by Molson Coors press release or Bloomberg by November 15, 2026)

The global beer market faces structural volume pressure in North America, collapse of the hard seltzer segment (Topo Chico, Coors Seltzer), and growing non-alcoholic competition. The energy price explosion (EU TTF +136% YoY, September 2026) increases production costs. ECB at 2.50% and Fed in rate-hiking mode weigh on household incomes and consumption. Comparable players Diageo, Pernod Ricard, and Brown-Forman are already flagged with organic revenue declines in open predictions. Molson Coors' mainstream brands (Coors Light, Miller Lite) carry higher price resilience than premium spirits — hence moderate calibration at 52%.

52%

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Brown-Forman Corporation (NYSE: BF.B) reports an organic net sales decline year-on-year in H1 FY2027 (May–October 2026, release approx. December 2026, confirmed by Brown-Forman press release or Bloomberg by December 15, 2026)

Brown-Forman (Jack Daniel's ~40% of revenue, Woodford Reserve, Old Forester) faces the same global premium whiskey downturn as Diageo and Pernod Ricard: distributor destocking, stagnant US domestic demand, weakness in Europe and Asia-Pacific. Fiscal year runs May–April; H1 FY2027 covers May–October 2026, results typically released in early December. IWSR 2026 confirms ongoing global American whiskey volume weakness. Open platform predictions for both Diageo and Pernod Ricard show the same organic decline pattern. No Polymarket market found for BF.B. Assessment: ~65% probability of organic decline.

65%

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