📈 Economy · Next Week

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) beats adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus of approx. $0.47 in Q2 2026 earnings (July 22, 2026, after market close)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 20. July 2026 · Predicted for 22. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

65%

Tesla reports Q2 2026 on July 22 after market close. Zacks consensus is $0.47/share (TipRanks: $0.52; TradingKey: $0.54), with revenue consensus of $24.7–26.4B. Tesla beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters (avg. negative surprise in the miss quarter: only –5.5%). Q2 deliveries of 480,126 vehicles are already known, making revenue largely predictable. Key variable for a beat: gross margin and cost trajectory for Cybercab/Optimus. No Polymarket odds found; Zacks rates a beat as likely.

Data basis for this prediction

Zacks Consensus EPS Q2 2026: 0,47 USD (zacks.com, Stand 20.07.2026)
TipRanks EPS-Forecast Q2 2026: 0,52 USD; TradingKey: 0,54 USD (Stand Juli 2026)
Zacks/Yahoo Finance: Beat-History Tesla – 3 von 4 letzten Quartalen (Stand Juli 2026)
Tesla Q2 2026 Deliveries: 480.126 Fahrzeuge (offiziell, tradingview.com Juli 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

Tesla verfehlte den Non-GAAP-EPS-Konsens deutlich: Der tatsächliche Non-GAAP-EPS für Q2 2026 lag bei 0,33 USD/Aktie – weit unter dem Konsens von ~0,47 USD (Zacks) bzw. 0,52–0,54 USD (TipRanks/TradingKey). Das entspricht einem Miss von ca. 39 % gegenüber der mittleren Schätzung. Hauptursachen: Operating Profit brach um 57 % ein, die Einnahmen aus Regulatory Credits kollabierten, die Automotive-Bruttomarge (ex. Reg. Credits) lag mit 16,3 % unter den erwarteten ~17 %, und die Capex stiegen um 142 % auf 5,79 Mrd. USD, was zu negativem Free Cash Flow (–1,09 Mrd. USD) führte. Auf der Umsatzseite hingegen gab es einen klaren Beat: 28,24 Mrd. USD Rekordumsatz vs. ~26,4 Mrd. USD Konsens (+26 % YoY). Quellen: Electrek (https://electrek.co/2026/07/22/tesla-tsla-q2-2026-financial-results/), TradingKey (https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262049199-tesla-tsla-q2-2026-earnings-results-revenue-beat-eps-miss-margin-tradingkey), Teslarati (https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-q2-2026-earnings-results/).

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