Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) beats Q3-FY2026 Non-GAAP EPS consensus of ~$0.46 per share (approx. October 22, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 30. August 2026
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Predicted for 22. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Tesla reports Q3-FY2026 results around the third week of October 2026. Non-GAAP EPS consensus is ~$0.46 — a relatively low bar reflecting margin pressure and competition from BYD and European OEMs. Tailwinds: Cybertruck production at full capacity, Model 3/Y Long Range Refresh showing strong demand, and FSD v13/14 generating increasing software revenue. No existing Tesla earnings prediction in the open list. Comparable mega-cap tech beats run ~65–70% on Polymarket; Tesla's higher volatility justifies the lower 54% calibration.
Data basis for this prediction
- TSLA Q3 FY2026 Non-GAAP EPS Konsens: ca. 0,46 USD je Aktie (TipRanks / Market Chameleon, Aug 2026)
- Tesla Q2 FY2026: EPS und Auslieferungen lagen im Rahmen des Konsens (Bloomberg, Juli 2026)
- Polymarket Earnings-Beat-Markt vergleichbarer Mega-Caps: ~65–70% historische Trefferrate (Polymarket.com, Aug 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Tesla meldete am 21. Oktober 2026 einen Non-GAAP-EPS von 0,48 USD und übertraf damit den Analystenkonsens von ca. 0,45–0,46 USD. Quellen: TradingView, Electrek, Drive Tesla Canada.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
PLTR closed at $175.40 on November 4, 2026 (after-hours: $170.88, -2.58%; intraday high: $176.54; 52-week high: $212.94). Palantir clearly beat Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus: total revenue $2.313B, US Commercial revenue +148% YoY to $984M. The $185 threshold is +5.5% above the closing price or +8.3% above after-hours levels. Typical post-earnings 'sell the news' may weigh short-term, but the 52-week high of $212.94 confirms the level is reachable. NVIDIA earnings on November 18, 2026 could serve as a sector-wide catalyst. No direct Polymarket equivalent; own estimate: ~42%.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
ARM Holdings reports Q2 FY2027 (July–September 2026) on November 4 after market close. EPS consensus: $0.47; revenue consensus ~$1.38B (Theta Research, Oct 29). ARM is the dominant CPU IP licensor for AI servers (Neoverse), smartphones (Apple A-series, Qualcomm), and edge devices — all three segments scaling strongly in 2026. ARM has beaten EPS consensus in each of the last four quarters, driven by AI infrastructure capex. No direct Polymarket contract; analogue: S&P 500 Q3 2026 beat rate ~71%. Key risks: export control escalation (UK/US vs. China), hyperscaler capex delays, or HBM4 demand plateau.