📈 Economy · Tomorrow

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) beats Q2 2026 adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus of approx. $0.52 per share (July 22, 2026, after market close)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 21. July 2026 · Predicted for 22. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

72%

Tesla reports Q2 2026 results after close on July 22. Non-GAAP EPS consensus ~$0.52 (range $0.47–$0.55). Polymarket prices in 75.5% beat probability. Tesla delivered a record 480,126 vehicles in Q2 2026 (+25% YoY), well above estimates — signaling strong top-line and potential margin improvement. Q1 2026: $0.41 Non-GAAP EPS vs. $0.37 consensus. Multiple Seeking Alpha analyses headline 'beat is likely'. Zacks consensus $0.47; higher estimates at $0.54–$0.55. TSLA still ~-17% YTD, keeping expectations low.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: 75,5% Beat-Wahrscheinlichkeit TSLA Q2 (Stand 21.07.2026)
Tesla Q2 2026 Deliveries: 480.126 Fahrzeuge +25% YoY (Electrek, 02.07.2026)
Non-GAAP EPS-Konsens ~0,52 USD (MarketScreener / Zacks, 20.07.2026)
247wallst.com: TSLA -17% YTD; Earnings 22.07. nach Börsenschluss (20.07.2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

Tesla meldete am 22. Juli 2026 nach Börsenschluss einen Non-GAAP-EPS von 0,33 USD – deutlich unter dem Konsens von ~0,52–0,53 USD (Verfehlung um ca. 37–39 %). Trotz Umsatz-Beat (28,24 Mrd. USD, +26 % YoY, über Erwartungen) brach die Profitabilität ein: GAAP-Operating-Margin kollabierte auf 1,4 % (von 4,1 % im Vorjahr), Regulatory-Credit-Einnahmen brachen ein, und Capex von 5,79 Mrd. USD (Cybercab/Robotics) führte zu negativem Free Cash Flow. Der starke Lieferrekord (480.126 Fahrzeuge) schlug sich nicht in der erhofften Margenerholung nieder. Quellen: Electrek (https://electrek.co/2026/07/22/tesla-tsla-q2-2026-financial-results/), TradingKey (https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262049199-tesla-tsla-q2-2026-earnings-results-revenue-beat-eps-miss-margin-tradingkey), Teslarati (https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-q2-2026-earnings-results/)

Related Predictions

📈 Economy ✦ AI

US Consumer Price Index (headline CPI) for October 2026 exceeds 3.7 percent year-on-year — BLS release November 10, 2026, 8:30 AM ET (confirmed by BLS or Bloomberg by November 10, 2026, 10:00 AM ET)

The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.

65%

Next Week · Predicted for 10. Nov 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

Gold (XAU/USD Spot) closes above $4,400 per ounce on 31 December 2026 (confirmed by Bloomberg or Kitco by 1 January 2027)

Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.

32%

Next Year · Predicted for 31. Dec 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) beats Q1 FY2027 EPS consensus of $1.32 per share — earnings release November 11, 2026 after market close (confirmed by Cisco Investor Relations or Bloomberg by November 12, 2026, 10:00 AM ET)

Cisco has beaten Non-GAAP EPS consensus in 7 of its last 8 quarters. For Q1 FY2027 (August–October 2026) the company itself guided $1.32–$1.34 per share — the market consensus of $1.32 sits at the bottom of this self-guided range, which historically signals a beat for Cisco (Q4 FY2026: $1.22 vs. consensus $1.17). AI-networking growth, Splunk integration synergies, and record Q4 FY2026 revenue ($17.25B) confirm the structural growth momentum. Q1 FY2027 revenue consensus: $18.11B (within guidance range $18.0–18.2B).

80%

Next Week · Predicted for 11. Nov 2026