Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) beats the adjusted EPS consensus of approx. $0.47 per share in its Q2 2026 earnings report (22 July 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 17. July 2026
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Predicted for 22. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Tesla reports on 22 July 2026 after market close. Zacks consensus: $0.47 (YoY +17.5%). UBS analyst Joseph Spak estimates $0.67 (+43% above consensus), citing stronger-than-expected Q2 deliveries (~480,000 vehicles) and improved gross margin. Tesla's internal Earnings Expected Surprise Percentage (ESP) is +16.12%, signalling high beat probability. Risks: ongoing margin pressure from China price cuts, Cybertruck production costs and elevated commodity prices could limit the upside. No direct Polymarket market found for TSLA beat; historically Tesla beats the Zacks consensus in 7 of 8 quarters.
Data basis for this prediction
- Tesla Q2 2026 Zacks EPS-Konsens 0,47 USD; UBS-Schätzung 0,67 USD (+43 %) (Zacks / TipRanks / Yahoo Finance, 17.07.2026)
- Tesla Q2 2026 Earnings ESP: +16,12 % (Zacks Investment Research, 17.07.2026)
- Tesla Q2 2026 Deliveries ~480.000 Fahrzeuge – stark über Erwartung; Ergebnisdatum 22.07.2026 (Tradingkey / SEC Form 8-K, 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
Tesla verfehlte den bereinigten EPS-Konsens deutlich: Tatsächlicher non-GAAP EPS war 0,33 USD – rund 30 % unter dem Zacks-Konsens von ~0,47 USD und sogar 39 % unter dem zum Zeitpunkt des Berichts geltenden Konsens von ~0,53 USD. Das GAAP-EPS lag bei 0,32 USD. Ursachen: Das GAAP-Betriebsergebnis brach um 57 % auf 398 Mio. USD ein, die operative Marge kollabierte von 4,1 % auf 1,4 % – trotz Rekordumsatz von 28,24 Mrd. USD (+26 % YoY, Beat). Treiber des EPS-Misses waren höhere Betriebsausgaben, anhaltender Margendruck und gestiegene Kosten. Die UBS-Schätzung von 0,67 USD und das positive ESP-Signal erwiesen sich als stark überhöht. Quellen: Electrek (22.07.2026), Shacknews, Teslarati, Qz.com, StockTitan.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Cisco has beaten Non-GAAP EPS consensus in 7 of its last 8 quarters. For Q1 FY2027 (August–October 2026) the company itself guided $1.32–$1.34 per share — the market consensus of $1.32 sits at the bottom of this self-guided range, which historically signals a beat for Cisco (Q4 FY2026: $1.22 vs. consensus $1.17). AI-networking growth, Splunk integration synergies, and record Q4 FY2026 revenue ($17.25B) confirm the structural growth momentum. Q1 FY2027 revenue consensus: $18.11B (within guidance range $18.0–18.2B).