Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM) reports Q3 FY2026 net revenue above USD 45.5 billion
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 15. September 2026
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Predicted for 16. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
TSMC posted record Q2 2026 revenue of USD 40.20B (+36% YoY) with a net profit margin of 55.6% and announced an additional USD 100B Arizona investment. Its own Q3 guidance is USD 44.6–45.8B (midpoint ~USD 45.2B). A forecast above USD 45.5B sits in the upper quarter of the guidance range; TSMC has regularly exceeded its upper guidance bound amid the sustained AI chip boom (Nvidia, Apple, AMD). Publication expected approx. October 16, 2026, confirmed by TSMC Investor Relations or Bloomberg by October 17, 2026.
Data basis for this prediction
- TSMC Q2 2026 Earnings Release (16.7.2026): Revenue USD 40,20 Mrd. (+36 % YoY), Net Income +77,4 % YoY (TSMC IR / CNBC)
- TSMC Q3 2026 Revenue Guidance: USD 44,6–45,8 Mrd.; Nettogewinnmarge 55,6 % (TSMC IR, Juli 2026)
- CNBC 16.7.2026: TSMC kündigt zusätzliche USD 100 Mrd. Arizona-Investition an nach Q2-Rekordgewinn
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] TSMC Q3 2026 Nettoumsatz $46,72 Mrd. USD > 45,5 Mrd. USD-Schwelle. Quelle: TSMC Form 6-K, Cryptobriefing.com (Oktober 2026).
💻 Technology
✦ AI
PLTR closed at $175.40 on November 4, 2026 (after-hours: $170.88, -2.58%; intraday high: $176.54; 52-week high: $212.94). Palantir clearly beat Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus: total revenue $2.313B, US Commercial revenue +148% YoY to $984M. The $185 threshold is +5.5% above the closing price or +8.3% above after-hours levels. Typical post-earnings 'sell the news' may weigh short-term, but the 52-week high of $212.94 confirms the level is reachable. NVIDIA earnings on November 18, 2026 could serve as a sector-wide catalyst. No direct Polymarket equivalent; own estimate: ~42%.
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✦ AI
CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
ARM Holdings reports Q2 FY2027 (July–September 2026) on November 4 after market close. EPS consensus: $0.47; revenue consensus ~$1.38B (Theta Research, Oct 29). ARM is the dominant CPU IP licensor for AI servers (Neoverse), smartphones (Apple A-series, Qualcomm), and edge devices — all three segments scaling strongly in 2026. ARM has beaten EPS consensus in each of the last four quarters, driven by AI infrastructure capex. No direct Polymarket contract; analogue: S&P 500 Q3 2026 beat rate ~71%. Key risks: export control escalation (UK/US vs. China), hyperscaler capex delays, or HBM4 demand plateau.