Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates XRG, SLO) wins Stage 18 of Tour de France 2026 (Voiron–Orcières-Merlette, 185.2 km, July 23, 2026) as a solo breakaway
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 20. July 2026
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Predicted for 23. July 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Stage 18 (Voiron–Orcières-Merlette, 185.2 km, 3,900 m climbing) is one of the hardest mountain stages this Tour. Pogačar already won Stage 14 (Mulhouse–Le Markstein) solo and is the strongest climber in the peloton. After the Stage 16 TT, Evenepoel will be somewhat fatigued. Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates) is the only other realistic GC rival. Pogačar regularly attacks on final climbs in such alpha stages; probability of a solo win based on his season pattern: ~42%. Main risk: surviving breakaway riders or an Evenepoel attack with ITT momentum.
Data basis for this prediction
- TdF 2026 Stage 14 Ergebnis: Pogačar Solosieg (Mulhouse–Le Markstein) (TNT Sports/Cyclingnews, 18.07.2026)
- TdF 2026 GC Stand: Pogačar führt, del Toro 3. (Cyclingnews, 20.07.2026)
- TdF 2026 Stage 18 Strecke: Voiron–Orcières-Merlette, 185,2 km, 3.900 Hm (Cyclingnews Streckenvorschau)
- Pogačar Solo-Siege in großen Rundfahrten 2024–2026: >5 alpine Solosiege (ProCyclingStats)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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Pogačar leads the GC after Stage 15 by 5:00 over Evenepoel (Red Bull–Bora–Hansgrohe) and 5:58 over del Toro. Even if Evenepoel, the reigning TT world champion, wins the 26.1 km ITT in Stage 16, closing a 5-minute gap is physically near-impossible (record margins on comparable distances are ~3:30 min). In the Alpine stages 17–20, Pogačar is the dominant climber. Bookmaker odds imply >98% for his third consecutive Tour overall win.