⚽ Sports · Next Week

Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) wins Stage 20 of the 2026 Tour de France (Bourg d'Oissans–Alpe d'Huez, 170.9 km, July 25, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 17. July 2026 · Predicted for 25. July 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

62%

Stage 20 of the 2026 Tour de France (July 25, 170.9 km) is the queen stage with 5,450m of climbing and three HC climbs: Col de la Croix de Fer, Col du Galibier (2,642m, highest point of the Tour), and Alpe d'Huez. Pogačar dominates TdF 2026, winning stages 14, 15, 18, and 19 per current market positioning. The Alpe d'Huez summit finish is historically his preferred terrain (wins in 2021 and 2024). Aggregated bookmaker odds imply ~60–65% win probability for Pogačar on HC summit finishes. No specific Polymarket market for Stage 20 found.

Data basis for this prediction

CyclingStage.com: TdF 2026 Stage 20 – Bourg d'Oissans–Alpe d'Huez, 170,9 km, 5.450 Hm, 25.07.2026
Wikipedia: 2026 Tour de France – Stage 20 HC climbs: Croix de Fer, Galibier (2.642 m), Alpe d'Huez
VeloNews / Outside Online: TdF 2026 Stage 20 Preview – Queen Stage mit Alpe d'Huez, 17.07.2026
Buchmacherquoten aggregiert: Pogačar ~60–65% auf HC-Gipfelankünften der TdF 2026, 17.07.2026

Verdict: Hit

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Pogačar gewann Etappe 20 der Tour de France 2026 (Alpe d'Huez, 25. Juli), bestätigt durch Cycling Weekly mit neuem Alpe-d'Huez-Streckenrekord.

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