Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) beats the adjusted EPS consensus for Q3 FY2026 (April–June 2026) on August 4, 2026
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 11. July 2026
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Predicted for 4. August 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Starbucks reports Q3 FY2026 (April–June quarter) on August 4, 2026 after market close. Under CEO Brian Niccol (since September 2024, ex-Chipotle), a turnaround is underway: menu simplification, peak-hour focus, staff stabilization. After several weak quarters, analyst expectations are set low, increasing the beat probability. Large US consumer staple companies historically beat adjusted EPS consensus 65–75% of the time. Risks: high Arabica prices (~325 US cents/lb per existing forecast) and ongoing China headwinds push the probability slightly below sector average.
Data basis for this prediction
- Starbucks Q3-FY2026-Berichtstermin: 4. August 2026 nach Börsenschluss (marketbeat.com / tipranks.com)
- Brian Niccol CEO seit September 2024: Turnaround-Strategie (SEC 8-K sbux-03292026xearningsrele.htm, sec.gov)
- Arabica-Kaffee (KCU26): ~325 US-Cent/lb am 12.07.2026 (bestehende Cassandra-Vorhersage)
- S&P-500-EPS-Beat-Rate historisch: ~70–75 % (FactSet Earnings Insight 2025–2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Starbucks hat den bereinigten EPS-Konsens für Q3 FY2026 klar übertroffen: Non-GAAP EPS von $0,85 vs. Konsensschätzung von $0,66 – ein Beat von +28,8 % bzw. +70 % YoY. Die Aktie stieg nach den Ergebnissen um ~5 %. Turnaround-Maßnahmen unter CEO Brian Niccol (US-Comp-Sales +7,9 % dank Transaktionswachstum, Margenexpansion +430 Bp) trugen maßgeblich bei; Starbucks hob zudem die Jahresprognose an. Einzige Abweichung zur Vorhersage: Die Ergebnisse wurden am 29. Juli 2026 veröffentlicht, nicht am 4. August 2026. Die Kernannahme (EPS-Beat) ist jedoch eindeutig eingetreten. Quellen: Starbucks IR (about.starbucks.com), CNBC (cnbc.com/2026/07/29/starbucks-sbux-q3-2026-earnings), Investing.com (4821865), Yahoo Finance / Zacks.
🍾 Beverages
✦ AI
Rémy Cointreau published its H1 FY2026/27 result on October 27, 2026: organic growth of +2.9 percent YoY for April–September 2026 — 90 basis points above this forecast's threshold. The company confirmed its FY2026/27 guidance ('gradual return to organic growth'). Q2 FY2026/27 (Jul–Sep): Cognac up 12 percent YoY. FY2025/26 full year: +0.2 percent organic ('in line with targets', Rémy IR, June 3, 2026). Achieving above 2.0 percent for the full year only requires H2 (Oct 2026–Mar 2027) to avoid a complete collapse — the 90-basis-point H1 buffer provides substantial safety margin. Risks: US demand weakness, Chinese Cognac tariffs, macro slowdown. Supporting: Rémy Martin premiumization strategy, confirmed guidance, strong Q2 momentum.
🍾 Beverages
✦ AI
After the record of 322 million bottles (2021), Champagne shipments are in structural decline: ~319 million in 2022, ~299 million in 2023 (CIVC). Continued luxury weakness in China (export volume –27% YoY H1 2026), rising input costs, and saturated key markets (USA, France, UK) point to further contraction. At –5 to –7% p.a. decline (2022–2025 trend), 2026 volume would be approximately 262–271 million bottles — well below the 280 million threshold. No prediction market signal available. Confirmed via CIVC annual report or Reuters by January 31, 2027.
🍾 Beverages
✦ AI
Analyst consensus for Q3 2026: EPS 0.2998 USD (~0.30 USD) with revenue of 2.49 billion USD (MarketBeat / TradingView, as of October 2026). Monster Beverage has beaten EPS consensus in a majority of recent quarters and continues to benefit from international market expansion in the energy drink segment. No active Polymarket or Kalshi market found for this event; beat probability estimated at ~65% based on historical beat rate and current consensus positioning.